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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Derby

U T T U T

2–2

Full-time

Brentford

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

This season — Championship · 36/33 matches

Win Ø 42%

28%

55%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

25%

52%

Both score Ø 42%

28%

55%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

43% Possession 57%

11 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · Brentford 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	36	24	7	5	+27	79
2	Watford	36	20	9	7	+23	69
3	Brentford	33	18	8	7	+25	62
4	Swansea	32	18	8	6	+16	62
5	Reading	36	18	7	11	+12	61
6	Barnsley	34	18	7	9	+10	61
7	Bournemouth	35	15	11	9	+16	56
8	Cardiff	36	15	9	12	+17	54
9	Middlesbrough	36	15	8	13	+6	53
10	Millwall	36	11	16	9	+2	49
11	Stoke	36	12	12	12	-1	48
12	Bristol City	36	15	3	18	-9	48
13	QPR	35	12	10	13	-5	46
14	Blackburn	36	12	8	16	+8	44
15	Preston	36	13	5	18	-7	44
16	Luton	35	12	8	15	-13	44
17	Nott'm Forest	36	10	11	15	-6	41
18	Huddersfield	36	11	8	17	-11	41
19	Derby	36	10	9	17	-14	39
20	Coventry	35	9	11	15	-14	38
21	Birmingham	36	8	11	17	-20	35
22	Sheffield Weds	35	9	7	19	-20	34
23	Rotherham	32	9	5	18	-8	32
24	Wycombe	36	6	8	22	-34	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	18	14	2	2	+23	44
2	Norwich	18	12	5	1	+17	41
3	Swansea	17	10	5	2	+11	35
4	Barnsley	17	10	4	3	+8	34
5	Bournemouth	18	10	3	5	+11	33
6	Reading	18	11	0	7	+8	33
7	Brentford	15	9	4	2	+15	31
8	Middlesbrough	18	9	3	6	+5	30
9	Huddersfield	18	8	4	6	+7	28
10	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+4	28
11	Coventry	18	7	6	5	+0	27
12	QPR	18	7	4	7	-2	25
13	Cardiff	18	7	3	8	+11	24
14	Blackburn	18	6	6	6	+4	24
15	Luton	17	6	6	5	+0	24
16	Sheffield Weds	17	6	5	6	+1	23
17	Bristol City	18	7	2	9	-5	23
18	Millwall	18	4	10	4	+1	22
19	Nott'm Forest	18	5	7	6	+0	22
20	Derby	18	5	5	8	-6	20
21	Preston	18	5	4	9	-2	19
22	Wycombe	18	4	5	9	-10	17
23	Rotherham	16	4	3	9	-2	15
24	Birmingham	18	3	3	12	-19	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	18	12	2	4	+10	38
2	Brentford	18	9	4	5	+10	31
3	Cardiff	18	8	6	4	+6	30
4	Reading	18	7	7	4	+4	28
5	Swansea	15	8	3	4	+5	27
6	Barnsley	17	8	3	6	+2	27
7	Millwall	18	7	6	5	+1	27
8	Watford	18	6	7	5	+0	25
9	Bristol City	18	8	1	9	-4	25
10	Preston	18	8	1	9	-5	25
11	Bournemouth	17	5	8	4	+5	23
12	Middlesbrough	18	6	5	7	+1	23
13	Birmingham	18	5	8	5	-1	23
14	QPR	17	5	6	6	-3	21
15	Blackburn	18	6	2	10	+4	20
16	Stoke	18	4	8	6	-5	20
17	Luton	18	6	2	10	-13	20
18	Nott'm Forest	18	5	4	9	-6	19
19	Derby	18	5	4	9	-8	19
20	Rotherham	16	5	2	9	-6	17
21	Huddersfield	18	3	4	11	-18	13
22	Coventry	17	2	5	10	-14	11
23	Sheffield Weds	18	3	2	13	-21	11
24	Wycombe	18	2	3	13	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.