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Championship

Referee: D England

Nott'm Forest

U S T T S

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

This season — Championship · 14/15 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

43%

47%

Both score Ø 59%

64%

53%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%

19 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 7

8 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 8

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 5. · Derby 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	15	8	6	1	+11	30
2	Preston	15	8	4	3	+12	28
3	Leeds	15	8	4	3	+11	28
4	Swansea	14	8	4	2	+9	28
5	Nott'm Forest	14	7	4	3	+6	25
6	Bristol City	15	6	7	2	+3	25
7	Sheffield Weds	15	7	3	5	+7	24
8	QPR	15	7	2	6	-4	23
9	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+6	22
10	Charlton	15	6	4	5	+4	22
11	Hull	15	6	4	5	+3	22
12	Birmingham	15	7	1	7	-4	22
13	Derby	15	5	6	4	-2	21
14	Cardiff	14	5	5	4	+1	20
15	Brentford	14	5	3	6	+2	18
16	Blackburn	15	5	3	7	-3	18
17	Millwall	15	4	6	5	-4	18
18	Huddersfield	15	4	4	7	-4	16
19	Reading	14	4	3	7	-4	15
20	Wigan	15	4	3	8	-8	15
21	Luton	15	4	2	9	-5	14
22	Middlesbrough	15	2	6	7	-8	12
23	Barnsley	15	1	6	8	-15	9
24	Stoke	15	2	2	11	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	Cardiff	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Birmingham	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Derby	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Millwall	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Leeds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Sheffield Weds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
9	West Brom	7	3	4	0	+5	13
10	Swansea	7	4	1	2	+4	13
11	Charlton	8	4	1	3	+4	13
12	Wigan	7	4	1	2	+2	13
13	Blackburn	8	3	3	2	+2	12
14	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
15	Hull	8	3	2	3	+0	11
16	QPR	8	3	2	3	-1	11
17	Nott'm Forest	6	3	1	2	+3	10
18	Brentford	7	2	3	2	+2	9
19	Reading	7	3	0	4	-3	9
20	Middlesbrough	8	2	3	3	-3	9
21	Luton	7	2	2	3	-1	8
22	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-2	8
23	Barnsley	8	1	4	3	-5	7
24	Stoke	8	1	1	6	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	8	5	2	1	+6	17
2	Swansea	7	4	3	0	+5	15
3	Nott'm Forest	8	4	3	1	+3	15
4	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+7	14
5	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+1	13
6	QPR	7	4	0	3	-3	12
7	Hull	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Sheffield Weds	8	3	1	4	+3	10
9	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	9
10	Brentford	7	3	0	4	+0	9
11	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Preston	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Reading	7	1	3	3	-1	6
15	Luton	8	2	0	6	-4	6
16	Blackburn	7	2	0	5	-5	6
17	Derby	7	1	3	3	-7	6
18	Birmingham	8	2	0	6	-9	6
19	Cardiff	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Stoke	7	1	1	5	-7	4
21	Millwall	8	0	4	4	-8	4
22	Middlesbrough	7	0	3	4	-5	3
23	Wigan	8	0	2	6	-10	2
24	Barnsley	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.