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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Barnsley

T U U T U

2–4

Full-time

Stoke

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barnsley Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

100%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Championship · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 10%

13%

Points per game

0,6

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

60%

53%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

56% Possession 44%

12 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 7

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barnsley 23. · Stoke 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	15	8	6	1	+11	30
2	Preston	15	8	4	3	+12	28
3	Leeds	15	8	4	3	+11	28
4	Swansea	14	8	4	2	+9	28
5	Nott'm Forest	15	8	4	3	+7	28
6	Bristol City	15	6	7	2	+3	25
7	Sheffield Weds	15	7	3	5	+7	24
8	QPR	15	7	2	6	-4	23
9	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+6	22
10	Charlton	15	6	4	5	+4	22
11	Hull	15	6	4	5	+3	22
12	Birmingham	15	7	1	7	-4	22
13	Derby	16	5	6	5	-3	21
14	Cardiff	14	5	5	4	+1	20
15	Brentford	14	5	3	6	+2	18
16	Blackburn	15	5	3	7	-3	18
17	Millwall	15	4	6	5	-4	18
18	Huddersfield	15	4	4	7	-4	16
19	Reading	14	4	3	7	-4	15
20	Wigan	15	4	3	8	-8	15
21	Luton	15	4	2	9	-5	14
22	Middlesbrough	15	2	6	7	-8	12
23	Barnsley	15	1	6	8	-15	9
24	Stoke	15	2	2	11	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	Cardiff	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Birmingham	7	5	1	1	+5	16
4	Derby	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Millwall	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Leeds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Sheffield Weds	7	4	2	1	+4	14
9	West Brom	7	3	4	0	+5	13
10	Swansea	7	4	1	2	+4	13
11	Charlton	8	4	1	3	+4	13
12	Nott'm Forest	7	4	1	2	+4	13
13	Wigan	7	4	1	2	+2	13
14	Blackburn	8	3	3	2	+2	12
15	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+2	12
16	Hull	8	3	2	3	+0	11
17	QPR	8	3	2	3	-1	11
18	Brentford	7	2	3	2	+2	9
19	Reading	7	3	0	4	-3	9
20	Middlesbrough	8	2	3	3	-3	9
21	Luton	7	2	2	3	-1	8
22	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-2	8
23	Barnsley	8	1	4	3	-5	7
24	Stoke	8	1	1	6	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	8	5	2	1	+6	17
2	Swansea	7	4	3	0	+5	15
3	Nott'm Forest	8	4	3	1	+3	15
4	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+7	14
5	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+1	13
6	QPR	7	4	0	3	-3	12
7	Hull	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Sheffield Weds	8	3	1	4	+3	10
9	Charlton	7	2	3	2	+0	9
10	Brentford	7	3	0	4	+0	9
11	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
12	Preston	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Reading	7	1	3	3	-1	6
15	Luton	8	2	0	6	-4	6
16	Blackburn	7	2	0	5	-5	6
17	Derby	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Birmingham	8	2	0	6	-9	6
19	Cardiff	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Stoke	7	1	1	5	-7	4
21	Millwall	8	0	4	4	-8	4
22	Middlesbrough	7	0	3	4	-5	3
23	Wigan	8	0	2	6	-10	2
24	Barnsley	7	0	2	5	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.