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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

Derby

U S U S T

1–0

Full-time

Wigan

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Wigan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

58%

33%

Both score Ø 46%

67%

25%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 8

8 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 15. · Wigan 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	13	7	5	1	+9	26
2	Leeds	13	7	3	3	+9	24
3	Sheffield Weds	13	7	2	4	+8	23
4	QPR	13	7	2	4	+0	23
5	Preston	13	6	4	3	+10	22
6	Swansea	12	6	4	2	+7	22
7	Nott'm Forest	12	6	4	2	+6	22
8	Charlton	12	6	3	3	+6	21
9	Bristol City	12	5	5	2	+2	20
10	Birmingham	13	6	1	6	-3	19
11	Fulham	11	5	3	3	+8	18
12	Cardiff	12	4	5	3	+0	17
13	Brentford	12	4	3	5	+1	15
14	Blackburn	13	4	3	6	-3	15
15	Derby	12	3	6	3	-3	15
16	Millwall	13	3	6	4	-5	15
17	Luton	12	4	2	6	-2	14
18	Wigan	12	4	2	6	-6	14
19	Hull	12	3	4	5	-3	13
20	Reading	13	3	3	7	-5	12
21	Middlesbrough	12	2	4	6	-6	10
22	Huddersfield	12	2	3	7	-6	9
23	Stoke	13	2	2	9	-10	8
24	Barnsley	13	1	5	7	-14	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	7	5	2	0	+12	17
2	Cardiff	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Charlton	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Birmingham	6	4	1	1	+4	13
5	Sheffield Weds	6	4	1	1	+4	13
6	Wigan	6	4	1	1	+3	13
7	West Brom	6	3	3	0	+5	12
8	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+7	11
9	Millwall	6	3	2	1	+2	11
10	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+2	11
11	QPR	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Nott'm Forest	5	3	1	1	+4	10
13	Swansea	6	3	1	2	+3	10
14	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+3	9
15	Derby	6	2	3	1	+2	9
16	Blackburn	7	2	3	2	+1	9
17	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+1	8
18	Luton	6	2	2	2	+0	8
19	Hull	7	2	2	3	-2	8
20	Middlesbrough	7	2	2	3	-3	8
21	Reading	6	2	0	4	-4	6
22	Barnsley	7	1	3	3	-5	6
23	Huddersfield	6	1	1	4	-3	4
24	Stoke	7	1	1	5	-5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	7	4	2	1	+4	14
2	Leeds	7	4	1	2	+7	13
3	Swansea	6	3	3	0	+4	12
4	Nott'm Forest	7	3	3	1	+2	12
5	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+1	12
6	QPR	6	4	0	2	-1	12
7	Sheffield Weds	7	3	1	3	+4	10
8	Charlton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Fulham	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Reading	7	1	3	3	-1	6
11	Luton	6	2	0	4	-2	6
12	Brentford	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Blackburn	6	2	0	4	-4	6
14	Derby	6	1	3	2	-5	6
15	Birmingham	7	2	0	5	-7	6
16	Hull	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Preston	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-3	5
19	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Cardiff	7	0	4	3	-6	4
21	Millwall	7	0	4	3	-7	4
22	Middlesbrough	5	0	2	3	-3	2
23	Barnsley	6	0	2	4	-9	2
24	Wigan	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.