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Championship

Referee: Andy Madley

Derby

S T U U U

2–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

This season — Championship · 10/11 matches

Win Ø 38%

30%

45%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

40%

73%

Both score Ø 67%

60%

73%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 7

10 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 17. · Nott'm Forest 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	12	8	2	2	+10	26
2	Cardiff	12	7	3	2	+7	24
3	Sheffield United	12	8	0	4	+6	24
4	Bristol City	12	5	6	1	+9	21
5	Preston	12	5	6	1	+7	21
6	Leeds	12	6	2	4	+6	20
7	Norwich	12	5	4	3	-2	19
8	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	+5	18
9	Fulham	12	4	6	2	+4	18
10	Ipswich	11	6	0	5	+3	18
11	Middlesbrough	11	4	4	3	+4	16
12	Sheffield Weds	12	4	4	4	+2	16
13	Nott'm Forest	11	5	0	6	-4	15
14	QPR	12	3	5	4	-1	14
15	Hull	12	3	4	5	+3	13
16	Millwall	12	3	4	5	+0	13
17	Derby	10	3	4	3	+0	13
18	Brentford	12	2	6	4	-1	12
19	Barnsley	11	3	3	5	-2	12
20	Reading	11	3	3	5	-2	12
21	Birmingham	12	3	2	7	-11	11
22	Burton Albion	12	2	4	6	-17	10
23	Sunderland	12	1	5	6	-9	8
24	Bolton	12	1	2	9	-17	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	6	5	0	1	+6	15
2	Cardiff	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Wolves	6	4	1	1	+4	13
4	Bristol City	6	3	3	0	+7	12
5	Preston	6	3	3	0	+5	12
6	Ipswich	6	4	0	2	+4	12
7	Leeds	6	3	2	1	+7	11
8	Sheffield Weds	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Aston Villa	5	3	2	0	+4	11
10	QPR	6	3	2	1	+3	11
11	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+3	11
12	Hull	6	3	1	2	+10	10
13	Millwall	6	3	1	2	+3	10
14	Birmingham	6	3	1	2	-1	10
15	Norwich	6	2	3	1	+1	9
16	Nott'm Forest	6	3	0	3	-2	9
17	Barnsley	6	2	2	2	+0	8
18	Derby	4	2	1	1	+4	7
19	Brentford	6	1	4	1	+0	7
20	Fulham	6	1	4	1	+0	7
21	Burton Albion	6	2	1	3	-7	7
22	Reading	5	1	2	2	-1	5
23	Bolton	6	1	0	5	-8	3
24	Sunderland	6	0	2	4	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	6	4	1	1	+6	13
2	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+4	11
3	Cardiff	6	3	1	2	-1	10
4	Norwich	6	3	1	2	-3	10
5	Bristol City	6	2	3	1	+2	9
6	Preston	6	2	3	1	+2	9
7	Sheffield United	6	3	0	3	+0	9
8	Leeds	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Aston Villa	6	2	1	3	+1	7
10	Reading	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Nott'm Forest	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Sunderland	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Derby	6	1	3	2	-4	6
15	Middlesbrough	5	1	2	2	+1	5
16	Brentford	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	Sheffield Weds	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Barnsley	5	1	1	3	-2	4
19	Millwall	6	0	3	3	-3	3
20	QPR	6	0	3	3	-4	3
21	Hull	6	0	3	3	-7	3
22	Burton Albion	6	0	3	3	-10	3
23	Bolton	6	0	2	4	-9	2
24	Birmingham	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.