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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Mainz

T S T S T

2–3

Full-time

Union Berlin

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

80%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

55% Possession 45%

18 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 2

5 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 15. · Union Berlin 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	10	7	1	2	+11	22
2	Hoffenheim	11	6	2	3	+2	20
3	Dortmund	10	5	4	1	+12	19
4	RB Leipzig	10	5	3	2	+15	18
5	Bayern Munich	10	5	3	2	+9	18
6	Freiburg	10	5	3	2	+7	18
7	Schalke 04	10	5	3	2	+6	18
8	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+6	17
9	Wolfsburg	10	4	5	1	+3	17
10	Leverkusen	10	4	3	3	+0	15
11	Hertha	10	3	2	5	-2	11
12	Werder Bremen	10	2	5	3	-4	11
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	1	6	-4	10
14	Union Berlin	10	3	1	6	-5	10
15	Mainz	10	3	0	7	-17	9
16	Augsburg	10	1	4	5	-12	7
17	FC Koln	11	2	1	8	-13	7
18	Paderborn	10	1	1	8	-14	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+12	13
3	Bayern Munich	5	3	1	1	+9	10
4	M'gladbach	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Leverkusen	6	2	3	1	+2	9
6	Wolfsburg	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Hoffenheim	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Union Berlin	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	RB Leipzig	5	2	2	1	+7	8
10	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+3	8
11	Schalke 04	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+0	6
14	Hertha	4	2	0	2	-1	6
15	Augsburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	FC Koln	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Paderborn	5	1	0	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	5	4	0	1	+6	12
2	Hoffenheim	6	3	2	1	+2	11
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	1	1	+8	10
4	Schalke 04	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Freiburg	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Wolfsburg	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Bayern Munich	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Werder Bremen	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Dortmund	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Hertha	6	1	2	3	-1	5
12	FC Koln	6	1	1	4	-8	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Mainz	6	1	0	5	-17	3
16	Augsburg	5	0	2	3	-9	2
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Paderborn	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.