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Championship

Referee: Robert Jones

Nott'm Forest

S T S U U

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

This season — Championship · 33/30 matches

Win Ø 40%

33%

47%

Points per game

1,4

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

42%

47%

Both score Ø 56%

48%

63%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

15 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 9. · Derby 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	34	19	9	6	+24	66
2	Sheffield United	34	19	7	8	+25	64
3	Leeds	31	17	7	7	+13	58
4	Middlesbrough	33	15	12	6	+14	57
5	West Brom	32	16	8	8	+22	56
6	Bristol City	32	15	8	9	+9	53
7	Derby	30	14	9	7	+11	51
8	Birmingham	33	11	14	8	+9	47
9	Nott'm Forest	33	11	14	8	+8	47
10	Preston	34	12	11	11	+5	47
11	Aston Villa	32	10	14	8	+6	44
12	Swansea	33	12	8	13	+1	44
13	Hull	33	12	8	13	-1	44
14	Blackburn	34	11	11	12	-7	44
15	Sheffield Weds	33	11	11	11	-9	44
16	Brentford	32	11	10	11	+11	43
17	Stoke	34	9	14	11	-7	41
18	QPR	33	11	6	16	-11	39
19	Wigan	33	9	8	16	-14	35
20	Millwall	33	8	10	15	-12	34
21	Reading	34	6	12	16	-15	30
22	Rotherham	34	5	15	14	-20	30
23	Bolton	34	6	8	20	-31	26
24	Ipswich	34	3	12	19	-31	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	17	11	3	3	+18	36
2	Norwich	17	11	2	4	+10	35
3	Brentford	17	10	3	4	+18	33
4	Leeds	16	10	3	3	+11	33
5	Derby	15	8	5	2	+9	29
6	Wigan	17	8	5	4	+3	29
7	Nott'm Forest	16	8	4	4	+7	28
8	Middlesbrough	16	7	6	3	+7	27
9	Blackburn	17	7	6	4	+6	27
10	West Brom	16	7	5	4	+13	26
11	Preston	17	6	8	3	+9	26
12	Birmingham	17	6	8	3	+9	26
13	Aston Villa	16	6	8	2	+7	26
14	Bristol City	16	7	5	4	+5	26
15	Hull	16	7	4	5	+10	25
16	Swansea	16	7	4	5	+4	25
17	Sheffield Weds	16	6	7	3	+1	25
18	Stoke	17	7	4	6	+0	25
19	Millwall	17	6	6	5	+0	24
20	QPR	16	7	2	7	+1	23
21	Rotherham	17	5	8	4	-3	23
22	Reading	17	5	4	8	-2	19
23	Ipswich	17	2	9	6	-6	15
24	Bolton	17	3	4	10	-15	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	17	8	7	2	+14	31
2	West Brom	16	9	3	4	+9	30
3	Middlesbrough	17	8	6	3	+7	30
4	Sheffield United	17	8	4	5	+7	28
5	Bristol City	16	8	3	5	+4	27
6	Leeds	15	7	4	4	+2	25
7	Derby	15	6	4	5	+2	22
8	Birmingham	16	5	6	5	+0	21
9	Preston	17	6	3	8	-4	21
10	Nott'm Forest	17	3	10	4	+1	19
11	Swansea	17	5	4	8	-3	19
12	Sheffield Weds	17	5	4	8	-10	19
13	Hull	17	5	4	8	-11	19
14	Aston Villa	16	4	6	6	-1	18
15	Blackburn	17	4	5	8	-13	17
16	Stoke	17	2	10	5	-7	16
17	QPR	17	4	4	9	-12	16
18	Bolton	17	3	4	10	-16	13
19	Reading	17	1	8	8	-13	11
20	Brentford	15	1	7	7	-7	10
21	Millwall	16	2	4	10	-12	10
22	Rotherham	17	0	7	10	-17	7
23	Wigan	16	1	3	12	-17	6
24	Ipswich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.