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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Bayern Munich

S T U S T

4–0

Full-time

Dortmund

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,7

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 85%

90%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

4,1

3,4

Scored

2,5

2,3

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

17 Shots 2

5 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 1

6 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 6. · Dortmund 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	10	7	1	2	+11	22
2	RB Leipzig	11	6	3	2	+17	21
3	Hoffenheim	11	6	2	3	+2	20
4	Dortmund	10	5	4	1	+12	19
5	Schalke 04	11	5	4	2	+6	19
6	Bayern Munich	10	5	3	2	+9	18
7	Freiburg	10	5	3	2	+7	18
8	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+6	17
9	Wolfsburg	10	4	5	1	+3	17
10	Leverkusen	10	4	3	3	+0	15
11	Union Berlin	11	4	1	6	-4	13
12	Hertha	11	3	2	6	-4	11
13	Werder Bremen	10	2	5	3	-4	11
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	3	2	6	-4	11
15	Augsburg	11	2	4	5	-11	10
16	Mainz	11	3	0	8	-18	9
17	FC Koln	11	2	1	8	-13	7
18	Paderborn	11	1	1	9	-15	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ein Frankfurt	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+12	13
3	Bayern Munich	5	3	1	1	+9	10
4	M'gladbach	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Leverkusen	6	2	3	1	+2	9
6	Wolfsburg	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Schalke 04	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Hoffenheim	5	3	0	2	+0	9
9	Union Berlin	6	3	0	3	-1	9
10	RB Leipzig	5	2	2	1	+7	8
11	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Mainz	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Hertha	5	2	0	3	-3	6
15	Augsburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	FC Koln	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Paderborn	6	1	0	5	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	6	4	1	1	+10	13
2	M'gladbach	5	4	0	1	+6	12
3	Hoffenheim	6	3	2	1	+2	11
4	Schalke 04	5	3	1	1	+5	10
5	Freiburg	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Wolfsburg	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Bayern Munich	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Werder Bremen	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Dortmund	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Leverkusen	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Hertha	6	1	2	3	-1	5
12	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-8	5
13	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	FC Koln	6	1	1	4	-8	4
16	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	0	3	-3	3
17	Mainz	6	1	0	5	-17	3
18	Paderborn	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.