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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Derby

T U U S U

2–0

Full-time

Luton

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 25%

20%

30%

Points per game

1,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 80%

80%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

10 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 16. · Luton 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Swansea	10	6	3	1	+8	21
2	Leeds	10	6	2	2	+9	20
3	West Brom	10	5	4	1	+6	19
4	Nott'm Forest	10	5	4	1	+6	19
5	Fulham	10	5	3	2	+10	18
6	Preston	10	5	3	2	+7	18
7	Charlton	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Bristol City	10	4	5	1	+4	17
9	Sheffield Weds	10	5	1	4	+6	16
10	QPR	10	5	1	4	-3	16
11	Birmingham	11	5	1	5	-3	16
12	Cardiff	9	4	3	2	+2	15
13	Blackburn	10	4	2	4	+0	14
14	Hull	10	3	4	3	+1	13
15	Brentford	10	3	3	4	+1	12
16	Derby	10	2	6	2	-2	12
17	Luton	10	3	2	5	-3	11
18	Millwall	10	2	5	3	-5	11
19	Wigan	10	3	2	5	-6	11
20	Middlesbrough	11	2	4	5	-5	10
21	Reading	10	2	2	6	-5	8
22	Barnsley	10	1	3	6	-10	6
23	Huddersfield	10	1	2	7	-9	5
24	Stoke	10	0	2	8	-12	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Cardiff	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+7	11
4	Swansea	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Birmingham	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Charlton	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Wigan	5	3	1	1	+2	10
8	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Blackburn	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Hull	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Middlesbrough	6	2	2	2	-2	8
13	Nott'm Forest	4	2	1	1	+3	7
14	Sheffield Weds	4	2	1	1	+2	7
15	Millwall	4	2	1	1	+1	7
16	QPR	5	2	1	2	-1	7
17	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+2	6
18	Derby	5	1	3	1	+0	6
19	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	5
20	Luton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
21	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-5	5
22	Reading	5	1	0	4	-5	3
23	Huddersfield	5	0	1	4	-6	1
24	Stoke	6	0	1	5	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	5	4	0	1	+8	12
2	Bristol City	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	Nott'm Forest	6	3	3	0	+3	12
4	Swansea	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	West Brom	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Sheffield Weds	6	3	0	3	+4	9
7	QPR	5	3	0	2	-2	9
8	Charlton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Luton	5	2	0	3	+0	6
11	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Brentford	5	2	0	3	-1	6
13	Derby	5	1	3	1	-2	6
14	Birmingham	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Hull	4	1	2	1	+2	5
16	Reading	5	1	2	2	+0	5
17	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	5
18	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Millwall	6	0	4	2	-6	4
20	Cardiff	5	0	3	2	-4	3
21	Middlesbrough	5	0	2	3	-3	2
22	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-5	1
23	Barnsley	4	0	1	3	-5	1
24	Wigan	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.