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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Charlton

T T S T U

3–0

Full-time

Derby

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Charlton Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 36%

45%

27%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

45%

55%

Both score Ø 64%

55%

73%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

10 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Charlton 10. · Derby 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	11	6	4	1	+8	22
2	Nott'm Forest	11	6	4	1	+7	22
3	Preston	11	6	3	2	+11	21
4	Swansea	11	6	3	2	+7	21
5	Leeds	11	6	2	3	+8	20
6	Sheffield Weds	12	6	2	4	+7	20
7	Bristol City	11	5	5	1	+5	20
8	QPR	11	6	1	4	-1	19
9	Fulham	10	5	3	2	+10	18
10	Charlton	11	5	3	3	+3	18
11	Cardiff	11	4	4	3	+0	16
12	Birmingham	11	5	1	5	-3	16
13	Derby	11	3	6	2	+0	15
14	Blackburn	12	4	3	5	-2	15
15	Millwall	11	3	5	3	-4	14
16	Hull	11	3	4	4	-2	13
17	Brentford	11	3	3	5	+0	12
18	Luton	11	3	2	6	-5	11
19	Wigan	11	3	2	6	-7	11
20	Middlesbrough	11	2	4	5	-5	10
21	Huddersfield	12	2	3	7	-6	9
22	Reading	11	2	2	7	-6	8
23	Barnsley	11	1	3	7	-14	6
24	Stoke	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Cardiff	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+7	11
4	West Brom	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Nott'm Forest	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Swansea	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Birmingham	5	3	1	1	+3	10
8	Sheffield Weds	5	3	1	1	+3	10
9	Charlton	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Millwall	5	3	1	1	+2	10
11	Wigan	5	3	1	1	+2	10
12	QPR	6	3	1	2	+1	10
13	Derby	6	2	3	1	+2	9
14	Blackburn	7	2	3	2	+1	9
15	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+1	8
16	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	8
17	Hull	6	2	2	2	-1	8
18	Middlesbrough	6	2	2	2	-2	8
19	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+2	6
20	Luton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
21	Barnsley	6	1	2	3	-5	5
22	Huddersfield	6	1	1	4	-3	4
23	Reading	5	1	0	4	-5	3
24	Stoke	6	0	1	5	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	6	4	0	2	+7	12
2	Bristol City	6	3	3	0	+4	12
3	Nott'm Forest	6	3	3	0	+3	12
4	Swansea	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	West Brom	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Sheffield Weds	7	3	1	3	+4	10
7	QPR	5	3	0	2	-2	9
8	Charlton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+3	7
10	Luton	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Derby	5	1	3	1	-2	6
12	Brentford	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-3	6
14	Birmingham	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Hull	5	1	2	2	-1	5
16	Reading	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	5
18	Huddersfield	6	1	2	3	-3	5
19	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-4	4
20	Millwall	6	0	4	2	-6	4
21	Cardiff	6	0	3	3	-6	3
22	Middlesbrough	5	0	2	3	-3	2
23	Wigan	6	0	1	5	-9	1
24	Barnsley	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.