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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Nott'm Forest

T U S T T

2–2

Full-time

Derby

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Championship · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 34%

30%

38%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

62%

32%

Both score Ø 45%

62%

27%

Average goals

3,1

2,0

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%

11 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 21. · Derby 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	37	24	5	8	+38	77
2	Brighton	37	23	8	6	+32	77
3	Huddersfield	34	21	5	8	+6	68
4	Leeds	37	20	6	11	+14	66
5	Reading	35	19	7	9	+7	64
6	Fulham	35	15	13	7	+17	58
7	Preston	37	15	11	11	+6	56
8	Sheffield Weds	36	16	8	12	+6	56
9	Norwich	37	15	9	13	+7	54
10	Derby	37	14	10	13	+3	52
11	Barnsley	37	14	9	14	+2	51
12	Aston Villa	37	12	12	13	-2	48
13	Cardiff	37	13	9	15	-3	48
14	Brentford	37	13	8	16	+1	47
15	QPR	37	13	8	16	-9	47
16	Ipswich	37	10	15	12	-7	45
17	Birmingham	37	11	11	15	-16	44
18	Wolves	36	11	9	16	-4	42
19	Bristol City	38	11	8	19	-3	41
20	Burton Albion	37	10	11	16	-12	41
21	Nott'm Forest	37	11	7	19	-11	40
22	Blackburn	37	9	12	16	-11	39
23	Wigan	37	8	10	19	-11	34
24	Rotherham	37	4	5	28	-50	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	19	14	3	2	+29	45
2	Leeds	19	12	3	4	+12	39
3	Reading	18	11	5	2	+13	38
4	Huddersfield	16	12	2	2	+11	38
5	Norwich	18	11	4	3	+21	37
6	Newcastle	18	11	2	5	+18	35
7	Sheffield Weds	18	11	2	5	+10	35
8	Preston	19	10	4	5	+11	34
9	Aston Villa	18	9	7	2	+11	34
10	Derby	19	8	7	4	+8	31
11	Nott'm Forest	18	9	3	6	+7	30
12	Fulham	18	7	7	4	+6	28
13	Bristol City	19	8	4	7	+4	28
14	Cardiff	19	8	4	7	+3	28
15	Ipswich	19	6	9	4	+2	27
16	Burton Albion	18	8	3	7	+2	27
17	Blackburn	19	7	6	6	+0	27
18	Brentford	18	7	5	6	+9	26
19	Barnsley	19	6	7	6	-1	25
20	Birmingham	19	7	4	8	-5	25
21	QPR	19	7	4	8	-6	25
22	Wolves	17	5	3	9	-6	18
23	Rotherham	18	4	4	10	-9	16
24	Wigan	18	3	6	9	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	19	13	3	3	+20	42
2	Brighton	18	9	5	4	+3	32
3	Fulham	17	8	6	3	+11	30
4	Huddersfield	18	9	3	6	-5	30
5	Leeds	18	8	3	7	+2	27
6	Barnsley	18	8	2	8	+3	26
7	Reading	17	8	2	7	-6	26
8	Wolves	19	6	6	7	+2	24
9	QPR	18	6	4	8	-3	22
10	Preston	18	5	7	6	-5	22
11	Sheffield Weds	18	5	6	7	-4	21
12	Derby	18	6	3	9	-5	21
13	Brentford	19	6	3	10	-8	21
14	Cardiff	18	5	5	8	-6	20
15	Wigan	19	5	4	10	-4	19
16	Birmingham	18	4	7	7	-11	19
17	Ipswich	18	4	6	8	-9	18
18	Norwich	19	4	5	10	-14	17
19	Aston Villa	19	3	5	11	-13	14
20	Burton Albion	19	2	8	9	-14	14
21	Bristol City	19	3	4	12	-7	13
22	Blackburn	18	2	6	10	-11	12
23	Nott'm Forest	19	2	4	13	-18	10
24	Rotherham	19	0	1	18	-41	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.