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Eliteserien

Referee: Mischa Kellerhals

Aalesund

U T U T U

5–5

Full-time

Valerenga

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aalesund Valerenga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,5

4,3

Scored

1,5

2,2

Conceded

3,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 26%

13%

38%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 69%

88%

50%

Average goals

3,6

3,3

Scored

1,4

Conceded

2,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–2

2,60 xG 3,45

31% Possession 69%

24 Shots 21

8 Shots on target 10

8 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aalesund 15. · Valerenga 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	+31	+25.5	41
2	Viking	17	13	1	3	+23	+14.1	40
3	Tromso	16	10	4	2	+15	+8.1	34
4	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	+2	+4.7	26
5	Molde	16	7	3	6	+5	+9.8	24
6	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	+3	+0.3	24
7	Brann	16	7	1	8	+6	-0.4	22
8	Sarpsborg 08	16	6	4	6	-2	-0.2	22
9	Ham-Kam	16	6	4	6	-3	-2.5	22
10	Valerenga	16	6	2	8	-6	-4.3	20
11	Fredrikstad	16	6	2	8	-10	-10.2	20
12	KFUM Oslo	17	5	4	8	-8	-9.7	19
13	Sandefjord	16	4	3	9	-9	-8.5	15
14	Kristiansund	16	4	3	9	-11	-10.8	15
15	Aalesund	16	2	8	6	-14	-10.4	14
16	Start	17	2	4	11	-22	-5.6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	8	7	0	1	+22	+19.1	21
2	Viking	7	7	0	0	+17	+6.9	21
3	Tromso	9	6	2	1	+11	+9.9	20
4	Rosenborg	9	5	2	2	+8	+4.7	17
5	Molde	8	5	1	2	+9	+4.2	16
6	Ham-Kam	8	5	1	2	+2	-1.8	16
7	Sarpsborg 08	7	4	2	1	+3	+2.1	14
8	KFUM Oslo	10	4	2	4	-1	-7.1	14
9	Valerenga	9	4	1	4	+2	-2.1	13
10	Fredrikstad	7	4	1	2	+2	-1.1	13
11	Lillestrom	8	4	0	4	+3	+4.7	12
12	Brann	8	4	0	4	+1	+2.1	12
13	Kristiansund	8	3	2	3	-1	-6.6	11
14	Sandefjord	8	2	3	3	-3	-5.0	9
15	Aalesund	9	1	5	3	-6	-1.2	8
16	Start	8	1	3	4	-8	+0.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	9	6	2	1	+9	+6.4	20
2	Viking	10	6	1	3	+6	+7.2	19
3	Tromso	7	4	2	1	+4	-1.8	14
4	Lillestrom	9	4	2	3	-1	-0.0	14
5	Brann	8	3	1	4	+5	-2.5	10
6	Molde	8	2	2	4	-4	+5.5	8
7	Sarpsborg 08	9	2	2	5	-5	-2.2	8
8	Rosenborg	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.4	7
9	Valerenga	7	2	1	4	-8	-2.2	7
10	Fredrikstad	9	2	1	6	-12	-9.2	7
11	Ham-Kam	8	1	3	4	-5	-0.7	6
12	Sandefjord	8	2	0	6	-6	-3.5	6
13	Aalesund	7	1	3	3	-8	-9.1	6
14	KFUM Oslo	7	1	2	4	-7	-2.5	5
15	Kristiansund	8	1	1	6	-10	-4.2	4
16	Start	9	1	1	7	-14	-5.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.