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Serie A

Referee: A Santoro

Lecce

S U T S S

1–1

Full-time

Monza

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 29%

24%

33%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

42%

39%

Both score Ø 44%

45%

42%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,98 xG 1,14

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 13. · Monza 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	33	27	5	1	+61	+43.6	86
2	Milan	33	21	6	6	+25	+15.8	69
3	Juventus	33	18	10	5	+21	+23.8	64
4	Bologna	33	17	11	5	+22	+11.7	62
5	Roma	33	17	7	9	+20	+13.1	58
6	Atalanta	32	16	6	10	+22	+10.1	54
7	Lazio	33	16	4	13	+7	+4.5	52
8	Napoli	33	13	10	10	+9	+19.8	49
9	Fiorentina	32	13	8	11	+9	+1.2	47
10	Torino	33	11	13	9	+2	+4.8	46
11	Monza	33	11	10	12	-8	-14.0	43
12	Genoa	33	9	12	12	-5	-4.7	39
13	Lecce	33	8	11	14	-18	-9.1	35
14	Cagliari	33	7	11	15	-20	-10.2	32
15	Verona	33	7	10	16	-13	-13.0	31
16	Frosinone	34	7	10	17	-20	-15.0	31
17	Empoli	33	8	7	18	-22	-15.1	31
18	Udinese	33	4	16	13	-19	-10.9	28
19	Sassuolo	33	6	8	19	-26	-17.5	26
20	Salernitana	34	2	9	23	-47	-39.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	3	1	+31	+26.4	42
2	Bologna	17	12	3	2	+21	+9.1	39
3	Roma	17	11	3	3	+18	+11.6	36
4	Milan	16	11	2	3	+17	+8.4	35
5	Juventus	16	10	5	1	+13	+16.6	35
6	Atalanta	15	10	2	3	+21	+12.1	32
7	Torino	17	7	8	2	+7	+7.8	29
8	Fiorentina	16	8	4	4	+10	+6.1	28
9	Lazio	16	8	3	5	+6	+8.1	27
10	Frosinone	17	7	4	6	+2	-3.2	25
11	Cagliari	17	6	6	5	-3	+5.8	24
12	Napoli	16	6	5	5	-1	+10.9	23
13	Monza	17	6	5	6	-2	-5.6	23
14	Lecce	16	6	5	5	-6	+0.6	23
15	Genoa	16	5	6	5	-1	-1.4	21
16	Verona	16	5	5	6	-3	-6.0	20
17	Sassuolo	17	4	5	8	-10	-8.8	17
18	Empoli	17	4	4	9	-9	-5.5	16
19	Udinese	17	1	9	7	-8	-2.0	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	5	11	-19	-14.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	14	2	0	+30	+17.2	44
2	Milan	17	10	4	3	+8	+7.5	34
3	Juventus	17	8	5	4	+8	+7.2	29
4	Napoli	17	7	5	5	+10	+8.9	26
5	Lazio	17	8	1	8	+1	-3.7	25
6	Bologna	16	5	8	3	+1	+2.6	23
7	Roma	16	6	4	6	+2	+1.5	22
8	Atalanta	17	6	4	7	+1	-2.0	22
9	Monza	16	5	5	6	-6	-8.4	20
10	Fiorentina	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.8	19
11	Genoa	17	4	6	7	-4	-3.3	18
12	Torino	16	4	5	7	-5	-3.0	17
13	Udinese	16	3	7	6	-11	-8.9	16
14	Empoli	16	4	3	9	-13	-9.6	15
15	Lecce	17	2	6	9	-12	-9.7	12
16	Verona	17	2	5	10	-10	-7.0	11
17	Sassuolo	16	2	3	11	-16	-8.6	9
18	Cagliari	16	1	5	10	-17	-15.9	8
19	Salernitana	17	1	4	12	-28	-24.5	7
20	Frosinone	17	0	6	11	-22	-11.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.