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Eredivisie

Referee: R Dieperink

PSV Eindhoven

S S U S S

4–0

Full-time

Excelsior

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,3

This season — Eredivisie · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 45%

63%

26%

Points per game

2,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 52%

59%

44%

Average goals

3,9

3,2

Scored

2,6

0,9

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

66% Possession 34%

21 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 1

6 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 3. · Excelsior 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	27	19	7	1	+36	64
2	Ajax	27	16	8	3	+44	56
3	PSV Eindhoven	27	17	5	5	+38	56
4	AZ Alkmaar	27	16	6	5	+22	54
5	Twente	24	13	7	4	+23	46
6	Sparta Rotterdam	24	13	6	5	+17	45
7	Utrecht	26	9	9	8	-3	36
8	Waalwijk	26	9	8	9	+1	35
9	Nijmegen	27	7	13	7	+7	34
10	For Sittard	27	9	5	13	-12	32
11	Heerenveen	25	8	7	10	-6	31
12	Go Ahead Eagles	27	7	9	11	-10	30
13	Vitesse	28	6	9	13	-15	27
14	Volendam	27	7	6	14	-25	27
15	FC Emmen	27	5	9	13	-21	24
16	Excelsior	27	7	3	17	-36	24
17	Groningen	28	4	5	19	-30	17
18	Cambuur	27	4	4	19	-30	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	11	1	1	+32	34
2	Twente	12	10	2	0	+25	32
3	Feyenoord	13	9	4	0	+19	31
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	7	5	1	+11	26
5	Ajax	13	7	4	2	+25	25
6	Sparta Rotterdam	12	8	1	3	+11	25
7	Waalwijk	14	7	3	4	+9	24
8	Excelsior	14	6	2	6	-6	20
9	Volendam	13	6	1	6	-6	19
10	Nijmegen	14	3	9	2	+7	18
11	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	5	4	-1	17
12	Utrecht	13	4	5	4	-1	17
13	FC Emmen	14	3	8	3	-2	17
14	For Sittard	14	4	3	7	-6	15
15	Vitesse	14	3	5	6	-9	14
16	Groningen	14	3	3	8	-7	12
17	Heerenveen	12	3	2	7	-8	11
18	Cambuur	14	2	0	12	-17	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+17	33
2	Ajax	14	9	4	1	+19	31
3	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	1	4	+11	28
4	PSV Eindhoven	14	6	4	4	+6	22
5	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	5	2	+6	20
6	Heerenveen	13	5	5	3	+2	20
7	Utrecht	13	5	4	4	-2	19
8	For Sittard	13	5	2	6	-6	17
9	Nijmegen	13	4	4	5	+0	16
10	Twente	12	3	5	4	-2	14
11	Vitesse	14	3	4	7	-6	13
12	Go Ahead Eagles	14	3	4	7	-9	13
13	Waalwijk	12	2	5	5	-8	11
14	Cambuur	13	2	4	7	-13	10
15	Volendam	14	1	5	8	-19	8
16	FC Emmen	13	2	1	10	-19	7
17	Groningen	14	1	2	11	-23	5
18	Excelsior	13	1	1	11	-30	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.