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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

Heerenveen

S S T S T

0–2

Full-time

Ajax

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 57%

41%

72%

Points per game

1,4

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

61%

Both score Ø 49%

41%

56%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,55 xG 2,72

58% Possession 42%

11 Shots 21

2 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 8

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 7

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 10. · Ajax 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	19	15	1	3	+44	+26.1	46
2	Ajax	18	13	3	2	+22	+12.9	42
3	Utrecht	19	12	4	3	+7	+0.3	40
4	Feyenoord	19	10	6	3	+18	+19.3	36
5	Twente	18	10	4	4	+15	+15.7	34
6	Go Ahead Eagles	19	9	4	6	+7	+11.2	31
7	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	4	5	+5	+6.8	28
8	For Sittard	18	7	4	7	-3	-0.3	25
9	NAC Breda	19	8	1	10	-9	-8.9	25
10	Heerenveen	17	7	3	7	-4	-1.7	24
11	Willem II	19	6	5	8	-2	-15.2	23
12	Nijmegen	18	6	2	10	+0	+4.5	20
13	Zwolle	19	5	5	9	-9	-15.4	20
14	Groningen	18	4	5	9	-13	-10.5	17
15	Heracles	17	3	6	8	-15	-15.0	15
16	Sparta Rotterdam	18	2	7	9	-12	+0.8	13
17	Almere City	18	2	4	12	-27	-13.5	10
18	Waalwijk	18	1	4	13	-24	-17.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	8	1	0	+29	+14.1	25
2	Ajax	9	8	1	0	+16	+11.1	25
3	Twente	9	6	3	0	+15	+13.2	21
4	Go Ahead Eagles	10	6	2	2	+9	+12.0	20
5	Heerenveen	8	5	3	0	+9	+4.6	18
6	NAC Breda	10	6	0	4	+1	-0.9	18
7	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+7	+11.0	17
8	Utrecht	10	5	2	3	-3	+3.6	17
9	Zwolle	10	5	0	5	+1	-3.4	15
10	For Sittard	9	5	0	4	+0	+2.5	15
11	Groningen	9	3	4	2	+4	+0.7	13
12	Willem II	10	3	3	4	+3	-4.2	12
13	Nijmegen	9	3	2	4	+6	+7.4	11
14	Heracles	9	2	5	2	+0	-2.3	11
15	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	1	3	+0	+5.5	10
16	Almere City	9	2	1	6	-14	-3.3	7
17	Waalwijk	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.0	5
18	Sparta Rotterdam	9	0	4	5	-9	+2.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	9	7	2	0	+10	-3.3	23
2	PSV Eindhoven	10	7	0	3	+15	+11.9	21
3	Feyenoord	10	5	4	1	+11	+8.4	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	10	5	3	2	+5	+1.3	18
5	Ajax	9	5	2	2	+6	+1.8	17
6	Twente	9	4	1	4	+0	+2.5	13
7	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	2	4	-2	-0.8	11
8	Willem II	9	3	2	4	-5	-11.0	11
9	For Sittard	9	2	4	3	-3	-2.8	10
10	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.9	9
11	Nijmegen	9	3	0	6	-6	-2.9	9
12	NAC Breda	9	2	1	6	-10	-8.0	7
13	Heerenveen	9	2	0	7	-13	-6.2	6
14	Zwolle	9	0	5	4	-10	-12.0	5
15	Heracles	8	1	1	6	-15	-12.7	4
16	Groningen	9	1	1	7	-17	-11.2	4
17	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-13	-10.2	3
18	Waalwijk	9	0	2	7	-15	-11.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.