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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Cagliari

T T T S U

4–1

Full-time

Lecce

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 23%

20%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

45%

40%

Both score Ø 43%

50%

35%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,62 xG 0,50

50% Possession 50%

19 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Cagliari 18. · Lecce 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	21	16	2	3	+21	+13.3	50
2	Inter	19	13	5	1	+31	+21.4	44
3	Atalanta	21	13	4	4	+22	+15.7	43
4	Juventus	21	8	13	0	+17	+12.5	37
5	Lazio	20	11	3	6	+6	+9.0	36
6	Fiorentina	20	9	6	5	+12	+9.2	33
7	Bologna	20	8	9	3	+6	+5.4	33
8	Milan	20	8	7	5	+8	+13.0	31
9	Roma	21	7	6	8	+4	+1.8	27
10	Udinese	20	7	5	8	-5	-7.3	26
11	Torino	21	5	8	8	-5	-8.3	23
12	Genoa	21	5	8	8	-12	-9.1	23
13	Empoli	20	4	8	8	-6	-9.4	20
14	Lecce	20	5	5	10	-18	-11.2	20
15	Parma	20	4	7	9	-10	-14.4	19
16	Como	20	4	7	9	-11	+1.6	19
17	Verona	20	6	1	13	-20	-13.7	19
18	Cagliari	20	4	6	10	-14	-8.8	18
19	Venezia	20	3	5	12	-15	-13.1	14
20	Monza	21	2	7	12	-11	-7.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	0	2	+9	+10.6	24
2	Atalanta	10	7	1	2	+13	+8.0	22
3	Roma	11	7	0	4	+12	+6.9	21
4	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	+8.7	21
5	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+5	+5.7	21
6	Juventus	11	4	7	0	+8	+8.6	19
7	Fiorentina	10	5	3	2	+5	+8.4	18
8	Milan	10	4	5	1	+9	+10.0	17
9	Bologna	10	4	5	1	+6	+8.1	17
10	Udinese	10	4	2	4	-2	-2.6	14
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-8	-1.1	13
12	Como	9	3	3	3	-2	+2.2	12
13	Parma	10	3	2	5	-2	-4.6	11
14	Venezia	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.5	11
15	Torino	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.5	10
16	Verona	10	3	1	6	-11	-4.3	10
17	Genoa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.2	9
18	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-10	-3.3	9
19	Empoli	10	1	4	5	-7	-3.5	7
20	Monza	11	1	3	7	-6	-3.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+12	+2.7	26
2	Inter	9	7	2	0	+20	+12.7	23
3	Atalanta	11	6	3	2	+9	+7.7	21
4	Juventus	10	4	6	0	+9	+3.9	18
5	Bologna	10	4	4	2	+0	-2.7	16
6	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	+7	+0.7	15
7	Lazio	10	5	0	5	+1	+3.3	15
8	Milan	10	4	2	4	-1	+3.0	14
9	Genoa	10	4	2	4	-6	-4.9	14
10	Empoli	10	3	4	3	+1	-5.9	13
11	Torino	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.7	13
12	Udinese	10	3	3	4	-3	-4.7	12
13	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-4	-5.5	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-9.4	9
15	Parma	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.7	8
16	Monza	10	1	4	5	-5	-4.2	7
17	Como	11	1	4	6	-9	-0.7	7
18	Lecce	10	2	1	7	-10	-10.0	7
19	Roma	10	0	6	4	-8	-5.0	6
20	Venezia	10	0	3	7	-13	-13.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.