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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

NAC Breda

U S S T T

2–4

Full-time

Heerenveen

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

NAC Breda Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 40%

41%

38%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

59%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

47%

38%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,15 xG 1,57

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match NAC Breda 10. · Heerenveen 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	18	15	1	2	+46	+24.0	46
2	Ajax	18	13	3	2	+22	+12.9	42
3	Utrecht	18	12	3	3	+7	+0.6	39
4	Feyenoord	18	10	5	3	+18	+18.9	35
5	Twente	17	10	4	3	+16	+14.9	34
6	Go Ahead Eagles	18	8	4	6	+6	+11.2	28
7	AZ Alkmaar	16	8	3	5	+5	+6.5	27
8	For Sittard	18	7	4	7	-3	-0.3	25
9	Willem II	18	6	4	8	-2	-14.7	22
10	NAC Breda	17	7	1	9	-8	-7.7	22
11	Heerenveen	16	6	3	7	-6	-2.1	21
12	Nijmegen	18	6	2	10	+0	+4.5	20
13	Zwolle	18	4	5	9	-11	-13.4	17
14	Groningen	17	4	5	8	-12	-10.5	17
15	Heracles	17	3	6	8	-15	-15.0	15
16	Sparta Rotterdam	18	2	7	9	-12	+0.8	13
17	Almere City	18	2	4	12	-27	-13.5	10
18	Waalwijk	18	1	4	13	-24	-17.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	8	1	0	+29	+14.1	25
2	Ajax	9	8	1	0	+16	+11.1	25
3	Twente	9	6	3	0	+15	+13.2	21
4	Heerenveen	8	5	3	0	+9	+4.6	18
5	Go Ahead Eagles	9	5	2	2	+8	+12.1	17
6	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+7	+11.0	17
7	Utrecht	9	5	1	3	-3	+4.0	16
8	NAC Breda	8	5	0	3	+2	+0.3	15
9	For Sittard	9	5	0	4	+0	+2.5	15
10	Groningen	9	3	4	2	+4	+0.7	13
11	Zwolle	9	4	0	5	-1	-1.4	12
12	Nijmegen	9	3	2	4	+6	+7.4	11
13	Willem II	9	3	2	4	+3	-3.7	11
14	Heracles	9	2	5	2	+0	-2.3	11
15	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	1	3	+0	+5.5	10
16	Almere City	9	2	1	6	-14	-3.3	7
17	Waalwijk	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.0	5
18	Sparta Rotterdam	9	0	4	5	-9	+2.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	9	7	2	0	+10	-3.3	23
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	0	2	+17	+9.9	21
3	Feyenoord	9	5	3	1	+11	+7.9	18
4	Ajax	9	5	2	2	+6	+1.8	17
5	AZ Alkmaar	9	5	2	2	+5	+1.0	17
6	Twente	8	4	1	3	+1	+1.7	13
7	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	2	4	-2	-0.8	11
8	Willem II	9	3	2	4	-5	-11.0	11
9	For Sittard	9	2	4	3	-3	-2.8	10
10	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.9	9
11	Nijmegen	9	3	0	6	-6	-2.9	9
12	NAC Breda	9	2	1	6	-10	-8.0	7
13	Zwolle	9	0	5	4	-10	-12.0	5
14	Heracles	8	1	1	6	-15	-12.7	4
15	Groningen	8	1	1	6	-16	-11.2	4
16	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-13	-10.2	3
17	Heerenveen	8	1	0	7	-15	-6.7	3
18	Waalwijk	9	0	2	7	-15	-11.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.