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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Quintero

Real Madrid

U S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Las Palmas

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Las Palmas

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

5,3

2,3

Scored

3,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 50%

68%

32%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

63%

58%

Both score Ø 61%

53%

68%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

5,90 xG 1,16

61% Possession 39%

26 Shots 6

13 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

8 Corners 2

6 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Las Palmas 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	20	13	5	2	+21	+19.4	44
2	Real Madrid	19	13	4	2	+24	+16.5	43
3	Barcelona	20	12	3	5	+29	+22.6	39
4	Ath Bilbao	20	11	6	3	+13	+8.9	39
5	Villarreal	19	8	6	5	+3	+10.5	30
6	Mallorca	19	9	3	7	-2	+0.4	30
7	Sociedad	19	8	4	7	+4	+3.1	28
8	Girona	20	8	4	8	+1	+3.9	28
9	Sevilla	20	7	5	8	-6	-3.8	26
10	Vallecano	19	6	7	6	+0	-2.9	25
11	Betis	20	6	7	7	-4	+4.2	25
12	Osasuna	19	6	7	6	-5	-8.3	25
13	Celta	20	7	3	10	-3	+6.1	24
14	Las Palmas	19	6	4	9	-5	-14.6	22
15	Leganes	20	5	7	8	-10	-18.1	22
16	Getafe	20	4	8	8	-3	-4.7	20
17	Alaves	20	5	5	10	-8	-3.4	20
18	Espanol	20	5	4	11	-13	-15.9	19
19	Valladolid	20	4	3	13	-25	-15.2	15
20	Valencia	19	2	7	10	-11	-8.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	10	8	2	0	+14	+18.0	26
2	Real Madrid	9	8	0	1	+15	+12.3	24
3	Ath Bilbao	10	6	3	1	+9	+4.4	21
4	Celta	11	6	2	3	+7	+4.4	20
5	Osasuna	10	5	3	2	+4	+2.6	18
6	Espanol	11	5	3	3	+2	-3.4	18
7	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	+0	+1.5	17
8	Girona	10	5	1	4	+4	+6.3	16
9	Betis	10	4	4	2	+2	+10.1	16
10	Barcelona	8	5	0	3	+12	+15.2	15
11	Getafe	11	3	6	2	+3	+3.0	15
12	Mallorca	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.1	15
13	Sociedad	10	4	2	4	+1	+3.2	14
14	Villarreal	9	3	4	2	+1	+3.1	13
15	Leganes	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.5	13
16	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.9	12
17	Las Palmas	10	3	3	4	-1	-4.2	12
18	Alaves	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
19	Valladolid	10	3	3	4	-5	-5.6	12
20	Valencia	9	2	3	4	+0	-1.5	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	7	3	2	+17	+7.4	24
2	Real Madrid	10	5	4	1	+9	+4.2	19
3	Ath Madrid	10	5	3	2	+7	+1.4	18
4	Ath Bilbao	10	5	3	2	+4	+4.5	18
5	Villarreal	10	5	2	3	+2	+7.4	17
6	Mallorca	9	5	0	4	+0	+3.5	15
7	Sociedad	9	4	2	3	+3	-0.1	14
8	Vallecano	10	3	4	3	+0	-5.8	13
9	Girona	10	3	3	4	-3	-2.4	12
10	Las Palmas	9	3	1	5	-4	-10.3	10
11	Leganes	10	1	6	3	-4	-11.6	9
12	Sevilla	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.3	9
13	Betis	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.9	9
14	Alaves	11	2	2	7	-7	-2.2	8
15	Osasuna	9	1	4	4	-9	-10.8	7
16	Getafe	9	1	2	6	-6	-7.7	5
17	Celta	9	1	1	7	-10	+1.8	4
18	Valencia	10	0	4	6	-11	-7.4	4
19	Valladolid	10	1	0	9	-20	-9.6	3
20	Espanol	9	0	1	8	-15	-12.5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.