Serie A
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Fiorentina
Torino
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Napoli
|
21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | +21 | +13.3 | 50 |
| 2 |
Inter
|
19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | +31 | +21.4 | 44 |
| 3 |
Atalanta
|
21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | +22 | +15.7 | 43 |
| 4 |
Juventus
|
21 | 8 | 13 | 0 | +17 | +12.5 | 37 |
| 5 |
Lazio
|
20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | +6 | +9.0 | 36 |
| 6 |
Bologna
|
20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | +6 | +5.4 | 33 |
| 7 |
Fiorentina
|
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | +12 | +8.1 | 32 |
| 8 |
Milan
|
20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | +8 | +13.0 | 31 |
| 9 |
Roma
|
21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | +4 | +1.8 | 27 |
| 10 |
Udinese
|
20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | -5 | -7.3 | 26 |
| 11 |
Genoa
|
21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | -12 | -9.1 | 23 |
| 12 |
Torino
|
20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -5 | -7.2 | 22 |
| 13 |
Empoli
|
20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | -6 | -9.4 | 20 |
| 14 |
Lecce
|
20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -18 | -11.2 | 20 |
| 15 |
Parma
|
20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -10 | -14.4 | 19 |
| 16 |
Como
|
20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -11 | +1.6 | 19 |
| 17 |
Verona
|
20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | -20 | -13.7 | 19 |
| 18 |
Cagliari
|
20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -14 | -8.8 | 18 |
| 19 |
Venezia
|
20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -15 | -13.1 | 14 |
| 20 |
Monza
|
21 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -11 | -7.7 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Monza
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Napoli
Juventus
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Udinese
Guimaraes
Fiorentina
L Marinelli · 94 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.