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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Nott'm Forest

S S S S U

3–2

Full-time

Southampton

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 31%

57%

Points per game

2,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

43%

52%

Both score Ø 46%

43%

48%

Average goals

2,4

2,9

Scored

1,4

0,6

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

2,05 xG 0,89

45% Possession 55%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 8

3 Offside 0

4 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 3. · Southampton 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	21	15	5	1	+30	+31.5	50
2	Arsenal	22	12	8	2	+22	+17.9	44
3	Nott'm Forest	21	12	5	4	+10	+2.4	41
4	Newcastle	22	11	5	6	+12	+10.4	38
5	Chelsea	21	10	7	4	+15	+12.6	37
6	Bournemouth	22	10	7	5	+10	+14.9	37
7	Aston Villa	22	10	6	6	-1	+6.5	36
8	Man City	21	10	5	6	+9	+7.3	35
9	Fulham	22	8	9	5	+4	+5.1	33
10	Brighton	21	7	10	4	+3	-1.6	31
11	Brentford	22	8	4	10	+1	-2.8	28
12	Crystal Palace	22	6	9	7	-3	-0.4	27
13	Man United	21	7	5	9	-3	-0.6	26
14	West Ham	22	7	5	10	-16	-9.1	26
15	Tottenham	21	7	3	11	+11	+1.7	24
16	Everton	20	3	8	9	-11	-8.4	17
17	Wolves	21	4	4	13	-17	-12.4	16
18	Ipswich	21	3	7	11	-17	-23.0	16
19	Leicester	22	3	5	14	-25	-22.7	14
20	Southampton	21	1	3	17	-34	-29.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	7	4	0	+13	+14.2	25
2	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.0	23
3	Brentford	12	7	2	3	+6	+2.9	23
4	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+6	+11.9	22
5	Man City	10	6	2	2	+7	+9.5	20
6	Newcastle	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.1	20
7	Bournemouth	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.6	18
8	Nott'm Forest	10	5	3	2	+4	+2.6	18
9	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	+1.0	17
10	Chelsea	10	4	4	2	+4	+8.2	16
11	Man United	11	5	1	5	-1	+2.2	16
12	Brighton	10	3	6	1	+1	+2.2	15
13	Tottenham	11	4	2	5	+5	+0.7	14
14	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-10	-6.6	14
15	Crystal Palace	11	2	5	4	-7	+0.8	11
16	Everton	10	2	4	4	-2	-3.6	10
17	Leicester	12	2	3	7	-10	-9.7	9
18	Wolves	10	2	1	7	-9	-5.8	7
19	Ipswich	11	1	4	6	-10	-8.4	7
20	Southampton	10	1	1	8	-20	-16.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+18	+18.5	27
2	Nott'm Forest	11	7	2	2	+6	-0.2	23
3	Chelsea	11	6	3	2	+11	+4.4	21
4	Arsenal	11	5	4	2	+9	+3.7	19
5	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.3	19
6	Newcastle	11	5	3	3	+5	+4.3	18
7	Crystal Palace	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.2	16
8	Fulham	11	4	4	3	+3	+4.1	16
9	Brighton	11	4	4	3	+2	-3.8	16
10	Man City	11	4	3	4	+2	-2.2	15
11	Aston Villa	11	4	2	5	-7	-5.5	14
12	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-6	-2.5	12
13	Tottenham	10	3	1	6	+6	+1.0	10
14	Man United	10	2	4	4	-2	-2.8	10
15	Ipswich	10	2	3	5	-7	-14.6	9
16	Wolves	11	2	3	6	-8	-6.6	9
17	Everton	10	1	4	5	-9	-4.8	7
18	Brentford	10	1	2	7	-5	-5.7	5
19	Leicester	10	1	2	7	-15	-13.0	5
20	Southampton	11	0	2	9	-14	-12.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.