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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Verona

S T S U T

0–3

Full-time

Lazio

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Verona Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 43%

30%

55%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

70%

Both score Ø 58%

50%

65%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,33 xG 1,45

35% Possession 65%

16 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

6 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Verona 18. · Lazio 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	21	16	2	3	+21	+13.3	50
2	Inter	19	13	5	1	+31	+21.4	44
3	Atalanta	21	13	4	4	+22	+15.7	43
4	Juventus	21	8	13	0	+17	+12.5	37
5	Lazio	20	11	3	6	+6	+9.0	36
6	Fiorentina	20	9	6	5	+12	+9.2	33
7	Bologna	20	8	9	3	+6	+5.4	33
8	Milan	20	8	7	5	+8	+13.0	31
9	Roma	21	7	6	8	+4	+1.8	27
10	Udinese	20	7	5	8	-5	-7.3	26
11	Torino	21	5	8	8	-5	-8.3	23
12	Genoa	21	5	8	8	-12	-9.1	23
13	Cagliari	21	5	6	10	-11	-6.7	21
14	Empoli	20	4	8	8	-6	-9.4	20
15	Parma	21	4	8	9	-10	-13.9	20
16	Lecce	21	5	5	11	-21	-13.3	20
17	Como	20	4	7	9	-11	+1.6	19
18	Verona	20	6	1	13	-20	-13.7	19
19	Venezia	21	3	6	12	-15	-13.6	15
20	Monza	21	2	7	12	-11	-7.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	10	8	0	2	+9	+10.6	24
2	Atalanta	10	7	1	2	+13	+8.0	22
3	Roma	11	7	0	4	+12	+6.9	21
4	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	+8.7	21
5	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+5	+5.7	21
6	Juventus	11	4	7	0	+8	+8.6	19
7	Fiorentina	10	5	3	2	+5	+8.4	18
8	Milan	10	4	5	1	+9	+10.0	17
9	Bologna	10	4	5	1	+6	+8.1	17
10	Udinese	10	4	2	4	-2	-2.6	14
11	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-8	-1.1	13
12	Parma	11	3	3	5	-2	-4.2	12
13	Como	9	3	3	3	-2	+2.2	12
14	Cagliari	11	3	3	5	-7	-1.2	12
15	Venezia	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.5	11
16	Torino	10	2	4	4	-3	-5.5	10
17	Verona	10	3	1	6	-11	-4.3	10
18	Genoa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.2	9
19	Empoli	10	1	4	5	-7	-3.5	7
20	Monza	11	1	3	7	-6	-3.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+12	+2.7	26
2	Inter	9	7	2	0	+20	+12.7	23
3	Atalanta	11	6	3	2	+9	+7.7	21
4	Juventus	10	4	6	0	+9	+3.9	18
5	Bologna	10	4	4	2	+0	-2.7	16
6	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	+7	+0.7	15
7	Lazio	10	5	0	5	+1	+3.3	15
8	Milan	10	4	2	4	-1	+3.0	14
9	Genoa	10	4	2	4	-6	-4.9	14
10	Empoli	10	3	4	3	+1	-5.9	13
11	Torino	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.7	13
12	Udinese	10	3	3	4	-3	-4.7	12
13	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-4	-5.5	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-9.4	9
15	Parma	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.7	8
16	Monza	10	1	4	5	-5	-4.2	7
17	Como	11	1	4	6	-9	-0.7	7
18	Lecce	11	2	1	8	-13	-12.2	7
19	Roma	10	0	6	4	-8	-5.0	6
20	Venezia	11	0	4	7	-13	-14.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.