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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Heerenveen

T U T U U

3–2

Full-time

Ajax

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Ajax

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,5

4,5

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 40%

30%

50%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

80%

85%

Both score Ø 68%

55%

80%

Average goals

3,6

4,2

Scored

1,6

2,4

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,97 xG 1,38

34% Possession 66%

17 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 13. · Ajax 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	20	18	2	0	+54	+42.5	56
2	Feyenoord	20	14	4	2	+36	+39.7	46
3	Twente	21	13	5	3	+21	+11.4	44
4	AZ Alkmaar	21	10	6	5	+19	+12.3	36
5	Ajax	20	10	5	5	+11	+9.0	35
6	Go Ahead Eagles	20	8	6	6	+6	-4.9	30
7	Nijmegen	20	7	7	6	+4	-10.3	28
8	Zwolle	21	7	6	8	-2	-7.1	27
9	Sparta Rotterdam	20	7	5	8	-2	-3.8	26
10	For Sittard	20	6	6	8	-12	+1.1	24
11	Almere City	21	6	6	9	-16	-10.3	24
12	Utrecht	20	5	8	7	-7	-7.8	23
13	Heerenveen	20	6	4	10	-9	-4.7	22
14	Heracles	21	6	4	11	-21	-14.3	22
15	Excelsior	21	4	9	8	-8	-9.0	21
16	Waalwijk	21	5	3	13	-18	-8.0	18
17	Volendam	20	3	3	14	-26	-16.0	12
18	Vitesse	21	3	3	15	-30	-19.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+26	+25.8	30
2	Twente	10	8	1	1	+10	+8.4	25
3	Feyenoord	10	6	3	1	+18	+18.6	21
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	+13	+12.1	20
5	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+12	+8.1	20
6	Go Ahead Eagles	11	5	3	3	+10	+5.0	18
7	For Sittard	10	5	3	2	+4	+8.5	18
8	Nijmegen	10	5	2	3	+8	+3.9	17
9	Heerenveen	9	4	2	3	+5	+7.1	14
10	Heracles	11	4	2	5	-10	-6.7	14
11	Almere City	11	3	4	4	-6	-3.7	13
12	Excelsior	11	2	6	3	-3	-0.5	12
13	Utrecht	10	2	5	3	-5	-3.3	11
14	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	+1.3	11
15	Waalwijk	11	3	2	6	-6	-4.0	11
16	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	-7	+0.1	9
17	Volendam	9	2	1	6	-10	-0.8	7
18	Vitesse	10	1	3	6	-9	-6.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	8	2	0	+28	+16.7	26
2	Feyenoord	10	8	1	1	+18	+21.1	25
3	Twente	11	5	4	2	+11	+3.0	19
4	Sparta Rotterdam	10	5	2	3	+5	-3.8	17
5	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	4	2	+6	+0.2	16
6	Zwolle	11	4	4	3	+3	-8.4	16
7	Ajax	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.8	15
8	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-2	-4.5	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	3	3	-4	-10.0	12
10	Nijmegen	10	2	5	3	-4	-14.2	11
11	Almere City	10	3	2	5	-10	-6.6	11
12	Excelsior	10	2	3	5	-5	-8.5	9
13	Heracles	10	2	2	6	-11	-7.7	8
14	Heerenveen	11	2	2	7	-14	-11.9	8
15	Waalwijk	10	2	1	7	-12	-3.9	7
16	For Sittard	10	1	3	6	-16	-7.3	6
17	Vitesse	11	2	0	9	-21	-13.1	6
18	Volendam	11	1	2	8	-16	-15.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.