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Eredivisie

Referee: B Nijhuis

Heerenveen

T S T U S

1–0

Full-time

PSV Eindhoven

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen PSV Eindhoven

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,7

Scored

1,2

3,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 14/15 matches

Win Ø 65%

36%

93%

Points per game

1,3

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

50%

87%

Both score Ø 52%

43%

60%

Average goals

2,4

4,5

Scored

1,1

3,7

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,99 xG 0,99

36% Possession 64%

12 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 11. · PSV Eindhoven 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	14	0	1	+44	+23.4	42
2	Utrecht	15	11	2	2	+9	-1.6	35
3	Ajax	15	10	3	2	+16	+8.9	33
4	Feyenoord	15	9	5	1	+19	+15.9	32
5	Twente	15	8	4	3	+10	+11.8	28
6	AZ Alkmaar	14	7	2	5	+4	+6.5	23
7	NAC Breda	15	7	1	7	-6	-5.6	22
8	Go Ahead Eagles	15	6	3	6	+2	+10.6	21
9	Willem II	16	5	4	7	-1	-12.3	19
10	For Sittard	15	5	4	6	-4	+0.4	19
11	Heerenveen	14	5	3	6	-4	-2.3	18
12	Nijmegen	15	5	1	9	+2	+3.2	16
13	Zwolle	16	4	4	8	-10	-11.6	16
14	Groningen	15	4	4	7	-10	-10.8	16
15	Heracles	15	3	5	7	-12	-11.0	14
16	Sparta Rotterdam	15	2	5	8	-10	+0.8	11
17	Waalwijk	15	1	3	11	-22	-15.6	6
18	Almere City	15	1	3	11	-27	-10.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+26	+13.5	21
2	Ajax	7	6	1	0	+12	+8.1	19
3	Twente	7	4	3	0	+9	+10.1	15
4	Heerenveen	7	4	3	0	+8	+4.6	15
5	NAC Breda	7	5	0	2	+3	+1.0	15
6	Utrecht	7	5	0	2	+0	+1.2	15
7	Go Ahead Eagles	8	4	2	2	+7	+10.7	14
8	Feyenoord	7	4	2	1	+5	+8.1	14
9	Groningen	8	3	3	2	+4	-0.3	12
10	For Sittard	7	4	0	3	+2	+3.2	12
11	Zwolle	8	4	0	4	+0	-0.8	12
12	Nijmegen	8	3	1	4	+6	+6.8	10
13	Heracles	8	2	4	2	+0	-0.6	10
14	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	1	3	+0	+5.5	10
15	Willem II	8	2	2	4	+0	-3.6	8
16	Sparta Rotterdam	8	0	4	4	-7	+3.7	4
17	Waalwijk	8	1	1	6	-9	-7.1	4
18	Almere City	8	1	1	6	-17	-3.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	7	0	1	+18	+9.9	21
2	Utrecht	8	6	2	0	+9	-2.8	20
3	Feyenoord	8	5	3	0	+14	+7.8	18
4	Ajax	8	4	2	2	+4	+0.8	14
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	1	2	+4	+1.0	13
6	Twente	8	4	1	3	+1	+1.7	13
7	Willem II	8	3	2	3	-1	-8.7	11
8	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	1	4	-3	-3.0	7
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.1	7
10	For Sittard	8	1	4	3	-6	-2.8	7
11	NAC Breda	8	2	1	5	-9	-6.6	7
12	Nijmegen	7	2	0	5	-4	-3.6	6
13	Zwolle	8	0	4	4	-10	-10.9	4
14	Heracles	7	1	1	5	-12	-10.3	4
15	Groningen	7	1	1	5	-14	-10.5	4
16	Heerenveen	7	1	0	6	-12	-6.9	3
17	Almere City	7	0	2	5	-10	-7.7	2
18	Waalwijk	7	0	2	5	-13	-8.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.