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Eredivisie

Referee: S van der Eijk

Sparta Rotterdam

T S T T U

2–0

Full-time

Waalwijk

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sparta Rotterdam Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 9/8 matches

Win Ø 36%

33%

38%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

63%

Both score Ø 47%

56%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,76 xG 1,02

52% Possession 48%

15 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 4

7 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sparta Rotterdam 7. · Waalwijk 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+27	+20.3	27
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	8	1	0	+21	+10.6	25
3	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	+26	+20.3	23
4	Twente	9	7	1	1	+13	+7.2	22
5	Go Ahead Eagles	9	4	2	3	+2	-7.9	14
6	Excelsior	9	3	4	2	+1	-0.9	13
7	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	3	3	-3	-4.6	12
8	Heracles	10	3	3	4	-8	-5.5	12
9	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	-3.3	11
10	Heerenveen	10	3	1	6	-8	-5.0	10
11	Nijmegen	9	2	3	4	-2	-6.8	9
12	Waalwijk	8	3	0	5	-8	-1.5	9
13	For Sittard	9	2	3	4	-9	-1.6	9
14	Vitesse	10	2	2	6	-9	-3.8	8
15	Almere City	9	2	2	5	-11	-4.1	8
16	Utrecht	9	2	0	7	-12	-7.8	6
17	Ajax	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.8	5
18	Volendam	8	1	1	6	-10	-2.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+12.3	15
2	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+16	+11.7	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.1	13
4	Go Ahead Eagles	5	4	1	0	+11	+2.3	13
5	Twente	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.6	12
6	Heracles	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.7	10
7	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.0	7
8	Heerenveen	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.4	7
9	For Sittard	4	2	1	1	+0	+2.2	7
10	Excelsior	5	1	3	1	-1	-0.2	6
11	Waalwijk	4	2	0	2	-4	-1.3	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	2	1	-3	-2.5	5
13	Volendam	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.1	4
14	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.9	4
15	Ajax	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.2	3
16	Utrecht	4	1	0	3	-7	-4.1	3
17	Almere City	4	1	0	3	-7	-2.5	3
18	Vitesse	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+14	+8.0	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	4	0	0	+8	+2.6	12
3	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+10	+8.7	10
4	Twente	5	3	1	1	+7	+4.6	10
5	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.7	7
6	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	+0	-4.2	7
7	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.1	7
8	Vitesse	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.6	6
9	Almere City	5	1	2	2	-4	-1.6	5
10	Waalwijk	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.2	3
11	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-5	-3.6	3
12	Heerenveen	5	1	0	4	-8	-6.4	3
13	Ajax	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.7	2
14	Nijmegen	4	0	2	2	-5	-7.9	2
15	For Sittard	5	0	2	3	-9	-3.8	2
16	Heracles	5	0	2	3	-10	-6.2	2
17	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	1	3	-9	-10.1	1
18	Volendam	4	0	0	4	-8	-3.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.