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Ligue 1

Referee: M Bollengier

Troyes

S U T U T

0–3

Full-time

Toulouse

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Troyes Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

32% Possession 68%

12 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Troyes 14. · Toulouse 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Lille	2	1	1	0	+3	4
3	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	-2	3
9	Nantes	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Angers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Rennes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Troyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Brest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Ajaccio	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Reims	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Lille	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Montpellier	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Lyon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Monaco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Nantes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Angers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Rennes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Clermont	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Lorient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Rennes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Nantes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Troyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Brest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Ajaccio	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-3	0
12	Reims	1	0	0	1	-3	0
13	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.