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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martínez
Almeria
S S S U U
1–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,8
2,3
Conceded
0,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%
10 Shots 29
6 Shots on target 15
1 Blocked shots 10
13 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 15
3 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 4
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,17
🔒
U
4,91
🔒
B ✓
1,42
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,58
🔒
U2,5
2,38
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Juan Martínez · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.