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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Atalanta

S U U U U

1–1

Full-time

Milan

S S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 44%

25%

63%

Points per game

1,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

25%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,34 xG 0,36

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 7. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+8	+4.1	21
2	Roma	8	6	0	2	+5	+3.0	18
3	Milan	8	5	2	1	+7	+4.6	17
4	Inter	8	5	0	3	+8	+8.2	15
5	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+6	+0.5	14
6	Como	8	3	4	1	+4	+2.1	13
7	Atalanta	8	2	6	0	+6	+4.7	12
8	Juventus	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.2	12
9	Udinese	8	3	3	2	-2	+0.7	12
10	Lazio	8	3	2	3	+4	-2.0	11
11	Cremonese	8	2	5	1	-1	-4.9	11
12	Torino	8	3	2	3	-6	-3.1	11
13	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	-1	-3.6	10
14	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-2	-7.3	9
15	Parma	8	1	4	3	-4	-1.6	7
16	Lecce	9	1	3	5	-7	-4.3	6
17	Verona	8	0	5	3	-7	+0.9	5
18	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-5	+0.3	4
19	Pisa	8	0	4	4	-7	-5.1	4
20	Genoa	8	0	3	5	-7	+1.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+5	-0.2	12
2	Milan	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.4	10
3	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
4	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.1	9
5	Como	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.0	8
6	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
7	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
8	Torino	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.8	7
9	Atalanta	4	1	3	0	+3	+5.0	6
10	Cremonese	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.8	6
11	Roma	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.8	6
12	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
13	Parma	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.7	5
14	Udinese	4	1	2	1	-2	+1.4	5
15	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-4.2	4
16	Verona	4	0	3	1	-1	+3.0	3
17	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.7	2
18	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-4	-1.7	2
19	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-4	+2.4	2
20	Fiorentina	4	0	1	3	-4	+0.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	4	4	0	0	+4	+1.3	12
2	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+3	+4.4	9
3	Milan	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.3	7
4	Udinese	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.7	7
5	Atalanta	4	1	3	0	+3	-0.3	6
6	Inter	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.8	6
7	Bologna	5	1	2	2	+0	-4.5	5
8	Cagliari	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.1	5
9	Como	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
10	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
11	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+0	-4.0	4
12	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.4	4
13	Juventus	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.5	4
14	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.5	4
15	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
16	Fiorentina	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.2	3
17	Parma	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.3	2
18	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.5	2
19	Verona	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.1	2
20	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-3	-0.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.