Coppa Italia
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Milan
Roma
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cesena
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 2 |
Empoli
|
3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 |
Bologna
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 4 |
Udinese
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 5 |
Cagliari
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 6 |
Sassuolo
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 |
Napoli
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 8 |
Genoa
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |
Monza
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 |
Milan
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 11 |
Atalanta
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 12 |
Juventus
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 13 |
Roma
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 14 |
Lazio
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 15 |
Pisa
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 16 |
Inter
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 17 |
Torino
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 18 |
Brescia
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 19 |
Mantova
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +0 | 3 |
| 20 |
Carrarese
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 |
Lecce
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |
Avellino
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 |
Palermo
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 24 |
Sampdoria
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 25 |
Spezia
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 26 |
Fiorentina
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 27 |
Como
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 28 |
Bari
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 29 |
Modena
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 30 |
Sudtirol
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 31 |
Cremonese
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 32 |
Salernitana
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 33 |
Cittadella
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 34 |
Verona
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 35 |
Catania
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 36 |
Torres
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 37 |
Parma
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 38 |
Reggiana
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 39 |
Venezia
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 40 |
Padova
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 41 |
Juve Stabia
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 42 |
Cosenza
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 43 |
Catanzaro
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 44 |
Frosinone
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
M. Maignan
G
K. Walker
D
F. Tomori
D
S. Pavlović
D
Y. Musah
M
Y. Fofana
M
Álex Jiménez
F
T. Abraham
F
C. Pulišić
F
Coach: Sérgio Conceição
M. Svilar
G
Z. Çelik
D
E. Ndicka
D
A. Saelemaekers
M
M. Koné
M
N. Pisilli
M
Angeliño
M
P. Dybala
F
E. Shomurodov
F
Coach: C. Ranieri
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Milan
Inter
Dinamo Zagreb
Milan
Milan
Parma
Milan
Girona
Juventus
Milan
M Piccinini · 104 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.