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Coppa Italia
Referee: M Piccinini
Milan
T S S T U
3–1
Full-time
Roma
S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Coppa Italia · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
7,0
5,0
Scored
6,0
4,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+5,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

51% Possession 49%
13 Shots 19
6 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 5
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 8
1 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 10. · Roma 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Cesena 4 3 0 1 -1 9
2 Empoli 3 2 1 0 +4 7
3 Bologna 2 2 0 0 +5 6
4 Udinese 3 2 0 1 +4 6
5 Cagliari 3 2 0 1 -1 6
6 Sassuolo 3 2 0 1 -2 6
7 Napoli 3 1 1 1 +3 4
8 Genoa 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 Monza 3 1 1 1 -2 4
10 Milan 1 1 0 0 +5 3
11 Atalanta 2 1 0 1 +4 3
12 Juventus 1 1 0 0 +4 3
13 Roma 1 1 0 0 +3 3
14 Lazio 1 1 0 0 +2 3
15 Pisa 2 1 0 1 +2 3
16 Inter 1 1 0 0 +2 3
17 Torino 2 1 0 1 +1 3
18 Brescia 2 1 0 1 +0 3
19 Mantova 2 1 0 1 +0 3
20 Carrarese 2 1 0 1 -1 3
21 Lecce 2 1 0 1 -1 3
22 Avellino 2 1 0 1 -2 3
23 Palermo 2 1 0 1 -4 3
24 Sampdoria 3 0 2 1 -3 2
25 Spezia 1 0 1 0 +0 1
26 Fiorentina 1 0 1 0 +0 1
27 Como 1 0 1 0 +0 1
28 Bari 1 0 1 0 +0 1
29 Modena 1 0 1 0 +0 1
30 Sudtirol 1 0 1 0 +0 1
31 Cremonese 2 0 1 1 -1 1
32 Salernitana 2 0 1 1 -2 1
33 Cittadella 1 0 0 1 -1 0
34 Verona 1 0 0 1 -1 0
35 Catania 1 0 0 1 -1 0
36 Torres 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Parma 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 Reggiana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
39 Venezia 1 0 0 1 -2 0
40 Padova 1 0 0 1 -2 0
41 Juve Stabia 1 0 0 1 -2 0
42 Cosenza 1 0 0 1 -2 0
43 Catanzaro 1 0 0 1 -3 0
44 Frosinone 1 0 0 1 -3 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milan Roma
1–0 T. Abraham
T. Hernández
16′
2–0 T. Abraham
T. Hernández
42′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 A. Dovbyk
↦ E. Shomurodov
46′
🔁 D. Rensch
↦ Z. Çelik
46′
🔁 L. Pellegrini
↦ L. Paredes
54′
A. Dovbyk 2–1
S. Giménez 🔁
↦ T. Abraham
58′
João Félix 🔁
↦ C. Pulišić
59′
70′
🟨 Manu Koné
Rafael Leão 🔁
↦ Álex Jiménez
70′
3–1 João Félix
S. Giménez
72′
Tijjani Reijnders ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
76′
79′
🔁 V. Nelsson
↦ M. Hummels
80′
🔁 S. El Shaarawy
↦ A. Saelemaekers
R. Sottil 🔁
↦ Y. Musah
90′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Milan

4-3-3
16 M. Maignan G
32 K. Walker D
23 F. Tomori D
31 S. Pavlović D
19 T. Hernández D
80 Y. Musah M
29 Y. Fofana M
14 T. Reijnders M
20 Álex Jiménez F
90 T. Abraham F
11 C. Pulišić F
Bench (13)
7 S. Giménez
79 João Félix
10 Rafael Leão
99 R. Sottil
28 M. Thiaw
9 L. Jović
42 F. Terracciano
73 F. Camarda
57 M. Sportiello
21 S. Chukwueze
96 L. Torriani
46 M. Gabbia
33 D. Bartesaghi

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Roma

3-5-2
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
15 M. Hummels D
5 E. Ndicka D
56 A. Saelemaekers M
17 M. Koné M
16 L. Paredes M
61 N. Pisilli M
3 Angeliño M
21 P. Dybala F
14 E. Shomurodov F
Bench (14)
11 A. Dovbyk
2 D. Rensch
7 L. Pellegrini
25 V. Nelsson
92 S. El Shaarawy
4 B. Cristante
27 L. Gourna-Douath
35 T. Baldanzi
34 A. Salah-Eddine
12 Saud Abdulhamid
95 P. Gollini
66 Buba Sangaré
18 M. Soulé
70 G. De Marzi

Coach: C. Ranieri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Piccinini · 104 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.