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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Roma

U S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Milan

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 49%

50%

47%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

39%

61%

Both score Ø 53%

47%

58%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,07 xG 1,55

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

12 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 6. · Milan 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	36	23	9	4	+30	+21.2	78
2	Inter	36	23	8	5	+42	+32.6	77
3	Atalanta	37	22	8	7	+42	+28.4	74
4	Juventus	36	16	16	4	+20	+13.4	64
5	Lazio	36	18	10	8	+13	+16.8	64
6	Roma	36	18	9	9	+17	+10.7	63
7	Bologna	36	16	14	6	+13	+11.7	62
8	Milan	36	17	9	10	+18	+20.9	60
9	Fiorentina	36	17	8	11	+17	+5.0	59
10	Como	36	13	9	14	-1	+2.1	48
11	Torino	36	10	14	12	-3	-14.6	44
12	Udinese	36	12	8	16	-12	-9.6	44
13	Genoa	37	9	13	15	-14	-10.3	40
14	Cagliari	36	8	9	19	-17	-12.3	33
15	Verona	36	9	6	21	-33	-20.4	33
16	Parma	36	6	14	16	-15	-14.2	32
17	Venezia	36	5	14	17	-20	-18.1	29
18	Empoli	36	5	13	18	-27	-18.0	28
19	Lecce	36	6	10	20	-33	-22.0	28
20	Monza	36	3	9	24	-37	-23.3	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	13	3	2	+19	+15.8	42
2	Napoli	18	13	3	2	+17	+16.3	42
3	Roma	18	12	2	4	+20	+10.2	38
4	Bologna	18	10	7	1	+17	+14.5	37
5	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+14	+9.4	37
6	Fiorentina	18	11	4	3	+13	+8.5	37
7	Atalanta	18	9	5	4	+13	+12.7	32
8	Milan	18	8	7	3	+12	+10.5	31
9	Lazio	18	7	9	2	+8	+11.6	30
10	Como	18	8	5	5	+4	+3.4	29
11	Torino	18	6	7	5	+1	-6.1	25
12	Udinese	18	7	3	8	-4	-5.1	24
13	Genoa	19	5	7	7	-4	-3.1	22
14	Parma	18	5	5	8	-3	-0.9	20
15	Venezia	18	5	5	8	-4	-1.5	20
16	Cagliari	18	5	4	9	-7	-2.2	19
17	Verona	18	4	4	10	-21	-6.7	16
18	Lecce	18	3	6	9	-19	-8.6	15
19	Empoli	18	2	7	9	-15	-9.0	13
20	Monza	18	1	5	12	-16	-8.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	19	13	3	3	+29	+15.8	42
2	Napoli	18	10	6	2	+13	+5.0	36
3	Inter	18	10	5	3	+23	+16.9	35
4	Lazio	18	11	1	6	+5	+5.2	34
5	Milan	18	9	2	7	+6	+10.3	29
6	Juventus	18	6	9	3	+6	+4.0	27
7	Roma	18	6	7	5	-3	+0.4	25
8	Bologna	18	6	7	5	-4	-2.8	25
9	Fiorentina	18	6	4	8	+4	-3.5	22
10	Udinese	18	5	5	8	-8	-4.5	20
11	Torino	18	4	7	7	-4	-8.6	19
12	Como	18	5	4	9	-5	-1.2	19
13	Genoa	18	4	6	8	-10	-7.2	18
14	Verona	18	5	2	11	-12	-13.7	17
15	Empoli	18	3	6	9	-12	-9.0	15
16	Cagliari	18	3	5	10	-10	-10.0	14
17	Lecce	18	3	4	11	-14	-13.4	13
18	Parma	18	1	9	8	-12	-13.4	12
19	Monza	18	2	4	12	-21	-14.9	10
20	Venezia	18	0	9	9	-16	-16.6	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.