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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Valencia

U S S T T

3–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

1,2

2,8

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

3,7

Scored

1,0

3,3

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+3,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,84 xG 0,75

37% Possession 63%

12 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 8

13 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 11. · Ath Madrid 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+3.7	12
2	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+5	+5.0	10
3	Girona	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.8	10
4	Barcelona	4	3	1	0	+4	+5.7	10
5	Vallecano	5	3	0	2	-2	+1.0	9
6	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+9	+4.0	7
7	Betis	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.3	7
8	Cadiz	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.4	7
9	Sociedad	4	1	3	0	+2	+1.1	6
10	Osasuna	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.0	6
11	Valencia	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.3	6
12	Alaves	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.1	6
13	Celta	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.1	4
14	Getafe	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.5	4
15	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.5	3
16	Granada	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.2	3
17	Mallorca	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.1	2
18	Las Palmas	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.8	2
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.2	1
20	Sevilla	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
2	Girona	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.7	6
3	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.5	6
4	Alaves	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
5	Sociedad	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
6	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.0	4
7	Getafe	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
8	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
9	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.3	3
10	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
11	Valencia	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
12	Granada	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.1	3
13	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	-5	-1.0	3
14	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
15	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
16	Villarreal	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.4	0
17	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
18	Osasuna	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0
19	Celta	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
20	Almeria	3	0	0	3	-5	+0.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.3	9
2	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.4	7
3	Osasuna	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.5	6
4	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.0	6
5	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+7	+2.5	4
6	Ath Bilbao	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.5	4
7	Celta	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
8	Girona	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
9	Valencia	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
10	Betis	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
11	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.2	3
12	Almeria	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
13	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.9	1
15	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
16	Las Palmas	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.0	0
17	Granada	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
18	Getafe	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.1	0
19	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0
20	Cadiz	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.