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La Liga
Referee: César Soto
Ath Madrid
S T S U T
1–0
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,7
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,7
Scored
1,2
2,3
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches
Win Ø 64%
53%
74%
Points per game
1,8
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
62%
65%
Both score Ø 55%
56%
53%
Average goals
2,9
3,0
Scored
1,7
2,1
Conceded
1,2
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%
16 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 3
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 6
2 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Real Madrid 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 34 25 6 3 +44 81
2 Barcelona 35 20 9 6 +30 69
3 Sevilla 35 17 14 4 +22 65
4 Ath Madrid 34 18 7 9 +18 61
5 Betis 35 17 7 11 +17 58
6 Sociedad 35 15 11 9 +0 56
7 Villarreal 35 14 11 10 +21 53
8 Ath Bilbao 35 13 13 9 +7 52
9 Osasuna 35 12 10 13 -10 46
10 Valencia 35 10 14 11 -4 44
11 Celta 35 11 10 14 +3 43
12 Vallecano 35 11 9 15 -4 42
13 Espanol 35 10 10 15 -12 40
14 Elche 35 10 9 16 -11 39
15 Getafe 35 8 13 14 -6 37
16 Cadiz 35 7 14 14 -14 35
17 Granada 35 7 13 15 -16 34
18 Mallorca 35 8 8 19 -30 32
19 Levante 35 6 11 18 -23 29
20 Alaves 35 7 7 21 -32 28

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Real Madrid
20′
🟨 Luka Jović
28′
🟨 Lucas Vázquez
Marcos Llorente 🟨
37′
Matheus Cunha ℹ️
VAR: Penalty awarded
38′
38′
🟨 Jesús Vallejo
1–0 Y. Carrasco
40′
Half-time 1–0
A. Griezmann 🔁
↦ Á. Correa
46′
61′
🔁 F. Valverde
↦ L. Jović
61′
🔁 Vinícius Júnior
↦ Casemiro
Stefan Savić 🟨
63′
68′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ T. Kroos
68′
🔁 F. Mendy
↦ Éder Militão
71′
🟨 Nacho Fernández
Felipe 🔁
↦ Reinildo
73′
R. De Paul 🔁
↦ Matheus Cunha
89′
Renan Lodi 🔁
↦ Y. Carrasco
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
24 Š. Vrsaljko D
15 S. Savić D
2 J. Giménez D
23 Reinildo D
4 G. Kondogbia M
6 Koke M
21 Y. Carrasco M
14 Marcos Llorente M
10 Á. Correa F
19 Matheus Cunha F
Bench (9)
8 A. Griezmann
18 Felipe
5 R. De Paul
12 Renan Lodi
27 G. Simeone
17 D. Wass
1 B. Lecomte
16 H. Herrera
9 L. Suárez

Coach: D. Simeone

Real Madrid

4-3-3
13 A. Lunin G
6 Nacho D
5 Vallejo D
3 Éder Militão D
8 T. Kroos M
14 Casemiro M
17 Lucas Vázquez D
25 E. Camavinga M
16 L. Jović F
11 Asensio F
21 Rodrygo F
Bench (9)
15 F. Valverde
20 Vinícius Júnior
10 L. Modrić
23 F. Mendy
24 M. Díaz
1 T. Courtois
9 K. Benzema
2 Carvajal
26 Luis López

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,09
U
3,54
B
3,56
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,91
U2,5 ✓
1,92
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

César Soto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.