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La Liga

Referee: Antonio Mateu

Real Madrid

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

2,2

2,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 16/15 matches

Win Ø 64%

75%

53%

Points per game

2,4

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

69%

67%

Both score Ø 65%

69%

60%

Average goals

3,3

2,9

Scored

2,3

1,8

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

7 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Sevilla	16	10	4	2	+15	34
3	Betis	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Ath Madrid	15	8	5	2	+11	29
5	Sociedad	17	8	5	4	+2	29
6	Vallecano	17	8	3	6	+6	27
7	Valencia	17	6	7	4	+3	25
8	Barcelona	16	6	6	4	+6	24
9	Espanol	17	6	5	6	+1	23
10	Osasuna	17	5	7	5	-4	22
11	Ath Bilbao	17	4	9	4	+1	21
12	Mallorca	17	4	8	5	-7	20
13	Villarreal	16	4	7	5	+1	19
14	Celta	17	4	5	8	-4	17
15	Granada	15	3	6	6	-7	15
16	Elche	17	3	6	8	-8	15
17	Alaves	16	4	3	9	-9	15
18	Getafe	17	2	6	9	-9	12
19	Cadiz	16	2	6	8	-16	12
20	Levante	17	0	8	9	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Espanol	9	6	2	1	+7	20
3	Sevilla	7	6	1	0	+12	19
4	Real Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	17
5	Betis	9	5	2	2	+9	17
6	Barcelona	9	5	2	2	+7	17
7	Valencia	9	4	4	1	+6	16
8	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+6	15
9	Sociedad	8	4	3	1	+2	15
10	Villarreal	8	4	2	2	+5	14
11	Mallorca	9	2	6	1	+1	12
12	Ath Bilbao	8	3	2	3	+1	11
13	Elche	8	2	4	2	-1	10
14	Alaves	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-1	8
16	Granada	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Osasuna	9	1	5	3	-6	8
18	Levante	8	0	6	2	-5	6
19	Celta	9	1	2	6	-6	5
20	Cadiz	8	0	4	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Betis	8	5	1	2	+3	16
3	Sevilla	9	4	3	2	+3	15
4	Ath Madrid	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Osasuna	8	4	2	2	+2	14
6	Sociedad	9	4	2	3	+0	14
7	Celta	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Ath Bilbao	9	1	7	1	+0	10
9	Valencia	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Cadiz	8	2	2	4	-8	8
11	Mallorca	8	2	2	4	-8	8
12	Barcelona	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Granada	8	1	4	3	-4	7
14	Alaves	7	1	2	4	-4	5
15	Villarreal	8	0	5	3	-4	5
16	Elche	9	1	2	6	-7	5
17	Vallecano	9	1	2	6	-8	5
18	Getafe	9	0	4	5	-8	4
19	Espanol	8	0	3	5	-6	3
20	Levante	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.