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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

West Ham

T S T T S

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 32%

24%

40%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

28%

52%

Both score Ø 44%

36%

52%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,22 xG 1,58

41% Possession 59%

17 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

13 Corners 2

6 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match West Ham 18. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	26	20	3	3	+34	+7.2	63
2	Man City	27	19	4	4	+42	+12.1	61
3	Man United	25	15	4	6	+6	+0.9	49
4	Tottenham	27	15	3	9	+12	+0.8	48
5	Liverpool	26	12	6	8	+18	+6.2	42
6	Newcastle	24	10	11	3	+18	-0.0	41
7	Brighton	24	11	6	7	+14	+9.4	39
8	Fulham	26	11	6	9	+4	-2.6	39
9	Brentford	25	9	11	5	+7	+3.4	38
10	Chelsea	26	10	7	9	+1	+0.9	37
11	Aston Villa	25	10	4	11	-7	-4.7	34
12	Crystal Palace	26	6	9	11	-12	-7.5	27
13	Wolves	26	7	6	13	-16	-4.1	27
14	Nott'm Forest	26	6	8	12	-26	-6.0	26
15	Everton	27	6	7	14	-18	-3.9	25
16	Leicester	26	7	3	16	-9	-1.9	24
17	Bournemouth	26	6	6	14	-26	-4.7	24
18	West Ham	25	6	5	14	-10	-0.3	23
19	Leeds	26	5	8	13	-11	-1.2	23
20	Southampton	25	6	3	16	-21	-4.0	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	13	11	1	1	+30	+7.5	34
2	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+18	+4.6	32
3	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+25	+5.4	30
4	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+13	+2.0	30
5	Man United	12	9	2	1	+16	+4.9	29
6	Brentford	13	7	5	1	+14	+2.0	26
7	Newcastle	12	6	5	1	+11	+0.2	23
8	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+4	+0.6	22
9	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+6	+2.1	21
10	Brighton	12	6	2	4	+10	+6.6	20
11	Nott'm Forest	13	5	5	3	+2	-2.8	20
12	Aston Villa	13	6	2	5	+1	-2.6	20
13	West Ham	12	5	2	5	+3	+4.2	17
14	Leeds	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
15	Everton	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.4	17
16	Wolves	13	5	2	6	-5	-0.4	17
17	Crystal Palace	14	4	5	5	-6	-6.0	17
18	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.4	16
19	Leicester	13	3	3	7	-1	-0.5	12
20	Southampton	12	2	3	7	-8	-1.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	10	1	2	+16	+2.6	31
2	Man City	14	8	3	3	+12	+4.5	27
3	Man United	13	6	2	5	-10	-4.0	20
4	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.8	19
5	Newcastle	12	4	6	2	+7	-0.2	18
6	Tottenham	13	5	3	5	-1	-1.3	18
7	Fulham	13	5	2	6	+0	-3.2	17
8	Chelsea	14	4	4	6	-5	-1.2	16
9	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-8	-2.1	14
10	Brentford	12	2	6	4	-7	+1.4	12
11	Liverpool	13	3	3	7	-7	+0.8	12
12	Leicester	13	4	0	9	-8	-1.4	12
13	Southampton	13	4	0	9	-13	-3.0	12
14	Crystal Palace	12	2	4	6	-6	-1.5	10
15	Wolves	13	2	4	7	-11	-3.7	10
16	Everton	13	1	5	7	-14	-4.3	8
17	Bournemouth	13	2	2	9	-23	-2.4	8
18	Leeds	13	1	3	9	-11	-2.2	6
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	13	1	3	9	-28	-3.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.