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Conference League
Referee: U Schnyder
Aston Villa
S T S T S
1–0
Full-time
Zrinjski
S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Zrinjski
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,8
4,2
Scored
2,2
2,3
Conceded
1,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 3/1 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
4,3
7,0
Scored
3,3
4,0
Conceded
1,0
3,0
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,68 xG 0,48
75% Possession 25%
27 Shots 3
9 Shots on target 1
10 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 8
15 Corners 0
0 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Aston Villa Zrinjski
22′
🟨 Aldin Hrvanović
John McGinn 🟨
24′
Half-time 0–0
O. Watkins 🔁
↦ J. Durán
46′
M. Cash 🔁
↦ L. Digne
46′
Douglas Luiz 🔁
↦ L. Dendoncker
46′
46′
🔁 M. Malekinušić
↦ A. Hrvanović
Ollie Watkins ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
55′
62′
🔁 Z. Kožulj
↦ A. Ivančić
Matty Cash 🟨
64′
64′
🟨 Nemanja Bilbija
73′
🔁 K. Memija
↦ M. Tičinović
73′
🔁 D. Zlomislić
↦ D. Čanađija
77′
🔁 T. Kiš
↦ N. Bilbija
B. Traoré 🔁
↦ Diego Carlos
82′
1–0 J. McGinn ⚽
M. Cash
94′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-4-2
1 E. Martínez G
4 E. Konsa D
3 Diego Carlos D
17 C. Lenglet D
12 L. Digne D
31 L. Bailey M
32 L. Dendoncker M
8 Y. Tielemans M
7 J. McGinn M
22 N. Zaniolo F
24 J. Durán F
Bench (9)
11 O. Watkins
2 M. Cash
6 Douglas Luiz
9 B. Traoré
42 F. Marschall
16 C. Chambers
25 R. Olsen
58 T. O'Reilly
14 Pau Torres

Coach: Unai Emery

Zrinjski

5-4-1
35 M. Marić G
6 J. Ćorluka D
27 S. Jakovljević D
95 M. Senić D
15 S. Radić D
91 M. Tičinović D
22 A. Hrvanović M
20 A. Ivančić M
5 D. Čanađija M
25 M. Ćuže M
99 N. Bilbija F
Bench (12)
17 M. Malekinušić
93 Z. Kožulj
50 K. Memija
8 D. Zlomislić
10 T. Kiš
9 F. Sabljić
1 A. Sefo
24 P. Mišić
55 O. Niron
29 A. Prskalo
14 A. Balić
2 L. Marin

Coach: K. Rendulić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

U Schnyder · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.