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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Aston Villa

S T S T S

1–3

Full-time

Chelsea

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 51%

41%

61%

Points per game

1,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

59%

56%

Both score Ø 49%

53%

44%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,4

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%

8 Shots 10

1 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 9. · Chelsea 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	15	2	2	+38	47
2	Liverpool	18	12	5	1	+35	41
3	Chelsea	18	11	5	2	+27	38
4	Arsenal	19	11	2	6	+9	35
5	Tottenham	16	9	2	5	+2	29
6	West Ham	18	8	4	6	+6	28
7	Man United	16	8	3	5	+2	27
8	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-1	25
9	Aston Villa	17	7	1	9	-2	22
10	Leicester	17	6	4	7	-3	22
11	Brentford	16	5	5	6	-1	20
12	Crystal Palace	18	4	8	6	-3	20
13	Brighton	16	4	8	4	-3	20
14	Southampton	18	4	8	6	-9	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-8	19
16	Leeds	18	3	7	8	-18	16
17	Watford	16	4	1	11	-10	13
18	Burnley	15	1	8	6	-7	11
19	Newcastle	18	1	7	10	-23	10
20	Norwich	18	2	4	12	-31	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	1	1	+25	25
2	Arsenal	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
4	Liverpool	9	6	3	0	+16	21
5	Chelsea	9	5	3	1	+15	18
6	Crystal Palace	9	3	5	1	+6	14
7	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+3	13
9	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+3	13
10	Man United	8	4	1	3	+1	13
11	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
12	Southampton	8	2	5	1	+1	11
13	Wolves	9	3	2	4	-2	11
14	Brentford	8	3	1	4	+0	10
15	Leeds	9	2	4	3	-5	10
16	Brighton	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
18	Watford	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Newcastle	9	1	4	4	-9	7
20	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	1	1	+13	22
2	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+19	20
3	Chelsea	9	6	2	1	+12	20
4	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Man United	8	4	2	2	+1	14
6	Wolves	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
8	Brighton	8	2	5	1	+0	11
9	Brentford	8	2	4	2	-1	10
10	Aston Villa	9	3	0	6	-5	9
11	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Southampton	10	2	3	5	-10	9
13	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	Watford	8	2	0	6	-3	6
15	Everton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-9	6
17	Leeds	9	1	3	5	-13	6
18	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-17	5
19	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Newcastle	9	0	3	6	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.