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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Burnley

T S S S T

1–3

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

5,0

Scored

0,0

2,5

Conceded

3,0

2,5

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,73 xG 2,70

57% Possession 43%

9 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 6

5 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
2	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.1	7
3	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
4	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.9	6
5	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
6	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.8	6
7	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+3	+4.6	5
8	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.7	4
9	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.6	4
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
11	Fulham	3	1	1	1	-2	-7.3	4
12	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.9	3
13	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.7	3
14	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.4	3
15	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.2	3
16	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.9	1
17	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
18	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0
19	Everton	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
2	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.9	4
3	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.3	4
4	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
5	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
7	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
8	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
9	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.8	3
10	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
11	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
12	Brentford	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
14	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
16	Everton	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.5	0
17	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.1	0
18	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
2	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
3	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.9	4
4	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
5	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
6	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
7	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
8	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
9	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
10	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
12	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
13	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.3	0
14	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
15	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
16	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
17	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0
18	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0
19	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.