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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Chelsea

T S S S U

0–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 39%

37%

41%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

41%

52%

Both score Ø 48%

44%

52%

Average goals

2,1

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,16 xG 0,92

69% Possession 31%

27 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

13 Corners 2

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 10. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	29	23	3	3	+43	+12.6	72
2	Man City	28	20	4	4	+45	+14.7	64
3	Man United	26	15	5	6	+6	+0.7	50
4	Tottenham	28	15	4	9	+12	+0.5	49
5	Newcastle	26	12	11	3	+20	+2.8	47
6	Brighton	26	12	7	7	+15	+11.6	43
7	Brentford	28	10	13	5	+9	+1.2	43
8	Liverpool	27	12	6	9	+15	+3.6	42
9	Fulham	28	11	6	11	+0	-5.9	39
10	Chelsea	27	10	8	9	+1	+2.0	38
11	Aston Villa	27	11	5	11	-4	-3.0	38
12	Crystal Palace	29	7	9	13	-15	-5.5	30
13	Wolves	29	7	7	15	-19	-4.5	28
14	Nott'm Forest	28	6	9	13	-27	-7.3	27
15	Bournemouth	28	7	6	15	-28	-5.2	27
16	Leeds	28	6	8	14	-12	-5.4	26
17	Everton	28	6	8	14	-18	-5.0	26
18	Leicester	28	7	4	17	-10	-3.4	25
19	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-10	+0.4	24
20	Southampton	28	6	5	17	-23	-4.9	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+24	+8.4	38
2	Man City	14	12	1	1	+33	+10.2	37
3	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+25	+5.4	30
4	Man United	13	9	3	1	+16	+4.7	30
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+13	+2.0	30
6	Brentford	14	7	6	1	+14	+1.3	27
7	Newcastle	13	7	5	1	+12	+0.9	26
8	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
9	Aston Villa	14	7	2	5	+4	-0.3	23
10	Chelsea	13	6	4	3	+6	+3.2	22
11	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.9	22
12	Nott'm Forest	15	5	6	4	+1	-4.1	21
13	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-5	-3.8	20
14	Bournemouth	14	5	4	5	-2	-0.5	19
15	West Ham	13	5	3	5	+3	+4.8	18
16	Leeds	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
17	Everton	14	5	2	7	-4	+0.4	17
18	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-7	+0.8	17
19	Leicester	13	3	3	7	-1	-0.5	12
20	Southampton	14	2	4	8	-10	-2.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	11	1	2	+19	+4.2	34
2	Man City	14	8	3	3	+12	+4.5	27
3	Newcastle	13	5	6	2	+8	+1.9	21
4	Man United	13	6	2	5	-10	-4.0	20
5	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	+2.8	19
6	Tottenham	14	5	4	5	-1	-1.5	19
7	Fulham	14	5	2	7	-1	-5.1	17
8	Brentford	14	3	7	4	-5	-0.1	16
9	Chelsea	14	4	4	6	-5	-1.2	16
10	Aston Villa	13	4	3	6	-8	-2.7	15
11	Leicester	15	4	1	10	-9	-2.9	13
12	Southampton	14	4	1	9	-13	-2.8	13
13	Liverpool	14	3	3	8	-10	-1.8	12
14	Wolves	15	2	5	8	-12	-5.2	11
15	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.7	10
16	Leeds	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.5	9
17	Everton	14	1	6	7	-14	-5.4	9
18	Bournemouth	14	2	2	10	-26	-4.7	8
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	13	1	3	9	-28	-3.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.