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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Holstein Kiel

S T T T U

2–4

Full-time

Ein Frankfurt

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Ein Frankfurt

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,3

3,7

Scored

1,7

2,3

Conceded

2,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

75%

Points per game

0,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

4,5

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

3,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,01 xG 1,93

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 18. · Ein Frankfurt 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+13	+8.4	13
2	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.0	11
3	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+4	+5.0	10
4	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.8	10
5	Heidenheim	5	3	0	2	+3	+2.1	9
6	Ein Frankfurt	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.6	9
7	Freiburg	5	3	0	2	+1	+4.3	9
8	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	+4	+4.0	8
9	Union Berlin	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.4	8
10	M'gladbach	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.3	6
11	Mainz	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.1	5
12	Werder Bremen	4	1	2	1	-4	-1.9	5
13	Wolfsburg	5	1	1	3	-1	-3.2	4
14	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
15	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.0	4
16	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-5	-3.3	3
17	Bochum	5	0	1	4	-6	-7.4	1
18	Holstein Kiel	4	0	1	3	-8	-4.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.3	9
2	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.9	7
3	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
4	Union Berlin	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
5	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+0	+4.1	6
6	Stuttgart	2	1	1	0	+4	+4.3	4
7	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.9	4
8	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.3	4
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
10	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.5	3
12	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.9	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.1	1
14	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.7	1
15	St Pauli	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
16	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.8	1
17	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.2	1
18	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-7	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+11	+6.5	9
2	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.5	7
3	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.4	6
4	Mainz	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.2	4
5	Werder Bremen	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
6	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.9	4
7	Stuttgart	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
8	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.1	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.1	3
10	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	+0	-2.7	3
11	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
12	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
13	Union Berlin	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
14	Holstein Kiel	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
15	Dortmund	2	0	1	1	-4	-2.5	1
16	Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0
17	Bochum	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.8	0
18	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-8	-4.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.