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Bundesliga

Referee: T Gerach

Holstein Kiel

T T U T U

0–2

Full-time

Union Berlin

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,7

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

3,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,7

1,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

3,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,37 xG 1,13

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 17. · Union Berlin 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+17	+12.2	17
2	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+9	+2.8	17
3	Freiburg	7	5	0	2	+4	+4.5	15
4	Leverkusen	7	4	2	1	+5	+7.4	14
5	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.6	13
6	Dortmund	7	4	1	2	+2	+2.4	13
7	Union Berlin	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.3	11
8	Heidenheim	7	3	0	4	+1	+0.1	9
9	Stuttgart	7	2	3	2	+0	+2.3	9
10	M'gladbach	7	3	0	4	-2	+0.5	9
11	Mainz	7	2	2	3	-1	-5.4	8
12	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.1	8
13	Wolfsburg	6	2	1	3	+1	-2.4	7
14	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-4	-6.7	7
15	Augsburg	7	2	1	4	-8	-0.5	7
16	St Pauli	7	1	1	5	-6	-4.5	4
17	Holstein Kiel	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.7	2
18	Bochum	7	0	1	6	-10	-8.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Union Berlin	3	3	0	0	+3	+2.1	9
3	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+4.4	9
4	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+6	+4.8	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.9	7
6	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
7	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
8	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+1	+4.9	7
9	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	-1	-3.2	6
10	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.0	6
11	Stuttgart	3	1	2	0	+4	+5.5	5
12	Heidenheim	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.2	3
13	Wolfsburg	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.1	1
14	Bochum	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.4	1
15	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.2	1
16	St Pauli	3	0	1	2	-5	+0.5	1
17	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.3	1
18	Holstein Kiel	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+11	+7.4	10
2	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+4	-0.1	10
3	Mainz	3	2	1	0	+4	-3.2	7
4	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.5	7
5	Werder Bremen	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
6	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.3	6
7	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.1	6
8	Heidenheim	4	2	0	2	+1	-1.1	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.8	6
10	Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.2	4
11	St Pauli	4	1	0	3	-1	-5.0	3
12	M'gladbach	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
13	Holstein Kiel	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.6	2
14	Union Berlin	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
15	Hoffenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.5	1
16	Dortmund	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.3	1
17	Bochum	4	0	0	4	-6	-4.5	0
18	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.