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Super League
Referee: Fedayi San
Winterthur
T T T T T
2–2
Full-time
Luzern
U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Luzern
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
4,3
3,5
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
3,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,2
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
89%
78%
Both score Ø 78%
67%
89%
Average goals
4,2
3,4
Scored
1,1
1,8
Conceded
3,1
1,7
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

35% Possession 65%
11 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 6
2 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Winterthur 12. · Luzern 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Thun 10 7 1 2 +7 -1.8 22
2 St. Gallen 10 7 0 3 +13 +2.9 21
3 Basel 9 6 0 3 +9 +10.3 18
4 Sion 10 4 3 3 +3 +3.3 15
5 Young Boys 9 4 2 3 -2 -1.8 14
6 Luzern 9 3 4 2 +1 -3.1 13
7 Lugano 9 4 1 4 -2 +3.7 13
8 Zurich 9 4 1 4 -3 +2.1 13
9 Lausanne 9 2 3 4 +1 +2.0 9
10 Grasshoppers 10 2 3 5 -4 -8.5 9
11 Servette 9 2 2 5 -5 +0.7 8
12 Winterthur 9 0 2 7 -18 -9.7 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Winterthur Luzern
Randy Schneider 🟨
11′
1–0 A. Hunziker
13′
2–0 N. Burkart
A. Hunziker
22′
Andrin Hunziker 🟨
28′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 A. Ciganiks
↦ S. Knezevic
63′
ℹ️ Matteo Di Giusto
VAR: Penalty confirmed
65′
🔁 S. Karweina
↦ J. Von Moos
65′
🔁 L. Villiger
↦ A. Bajrami
65′
🔁 L. M. Silva Ferreira
↦ K. Spadanuda
65′
A. Grbic 2–1
T. Golliard 🔁
↦ P. Kasami
66′
E. Maluvunu 🔁
↦ N. Burkart
66′
73′
🟨 Lucas Ferreira
B. Beyer 🔁
↦ R. Schneider
76′
Elias Maluvunu 🟨
81′
83′
🟨 Taisei Abe
87′
🔁 S. Wyss
↦ T. Abe
F. Momoh 🔁
↦ A. Hunziker
90′
90′
S. Diaby 3–1
own goal
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Winterthur

4-4-2
1 S. Kapino G
24 S. Sidler D
66 M. Martins D
22 A. Durrer D
18 S. Diaby D
10 R. Schneider M
45 A. Jankewitz M
7 L. Zuffi M
99 N. Burkart M
17 A. Hunziker F
23 P. Kasami F
Bench (9)
5 L. Muhl
8 T. Golliard
11 B. Dansoko
14 F. Momoh
26 L. Sahitaj
30 N. Brogli
37 E. Maluvunu
44 S. Cueni
68 B. Beyer

Coach: Uli Forte

Luzern

4-3-1-2
1 P. Loretz G
2 S. Ottiger D
5 S. Knezevic D
4 A. Bajrami D
46 B. Freimann D
24 T. Owusu M
6 T. Abe M
7 K. Spadanuda M
11 M. Di Giusto M
9 A. Grbic F
81 J. Von Moos F
Bench (9)
10 S. Karweina
14 A. Ciganiks
16 O. Kabwit
19 A. Vasovic
27 L. Villiger
29 L. Winkler
39 S. Wyss
73 L. M. Silva Ferreira
90 V. Vasic

Coach: Mario Frick

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.