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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Wolfgang Haslberger

Dresden

U U T U U

1–2

Full-time

Paderborn

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

11%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

78%

44%

Both score Ø 67%

78%

56%

Average goals

3,6

2,6

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

2,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

46% Possession 54%

8 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dresden 16. · Paderborn 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	10	8	0	2	+9	+0.8	24
2	Elversberg	9	7	1	1	+16	-2.9	22
3	Paderborn	9	6	2	1	+7	+2.8	20
4	Kaiserslautern	9	6	0	3	+7	-0.2	18
5	Darmstadt	10	5	3	2	+7	+0.9	18
6	Karlsruhe	10	5	3	2	+4	+0.3	18
7	Hannover	9	5	2	2	+2	+2.5	17
8	Hertha	9	3	2	4	+1	-1.9	11
9	Holstein Kiel	9	3	2	4	+1	+0.1	11
10	Preußen Münster	9	3	2	4	-2	-2.5	11
11	Bielefeld	9	3	1	5	+1	+1.7	10
12	Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	-6	-1.1	10
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	1	5	-8	-3.5	10
14	Greuther Furth	10	3	1	6	-12	-0.2	10
15	Nurnberg	9	2	2	5	-5	+0.1	8
16	Dresden	9	1	4	4	-4	+1.8	7
17	Bochum	9	2	0	7	-6	+1.8	6
18	Magdeburg	9	1	1	7	-12	-0.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	5	4	1	0	+9	-0.4	13
2	Kaiserslautern	4	4	0	0	+7	+1.0	12
3	Paderborn	5	4	0	1	+4	+0.4	12
4	Karlsruhe	5	4	0	1	+4	+0.1	12
5	Schalke 04	5	4	0	1	+3	+1.7	12
6	Darmstadt	5	3	2	0	+6	+0.6	11
7	Hannover	5	3	0	2	-1	+1.2	9
8	Preußen Münster	5	2	2	1	+2	-2.4	8
9	Bielefeld	5	2	0	3	+2	+2.2	6
10	Bochum	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.4	6
11	Nurnberg	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.4	5
12	Holstein Kiel	4	1	1	2	+0	+0.5	4
13	Braunschweig	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.3	4
14	Hertha	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.2	4
15	Greuther Furth	5	1	1	3	-7	+0.1	4
16	Dresden	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.8	2
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	0	1	4	-7	-1.3	1
18	Magdeburg	4	0	0	4	-8	+1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	5	4	0	1	+6	-1.0	12
2	Elversberg	4	3	0	1	+7	-2.4	9
3	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	3	0	1	-1	-2.2	9
4	Hannover	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.3	8
5	Paderborn	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.4	8
6	Hertha	5	2	1	2	+4	-1.7	7
7	Darmstadt	5	2	1	2	+1	+0.4	7
8	Holstein Kiel	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.4	7
9	Karlsruhe	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.2	6
10	Kaiserslautern	5	2	0	3	+0	-1.2	6
11	Braunschweig	5	2	0	3	-3	-1.3	6
12	Greuther Furth	5	2	0	3	-5	-0.3	6
13	Dresden	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.1	5
14	Bielefeld	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.5	4
15	Magdeburg	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.8	4
16	Nurnberg	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.4	3
17	Preußen Münster	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.1	3
18	Bochum	5	0	0	5	-7	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.