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Championship

Referee: Elliot Bell

Derby

U U U T S

1–0

Full-time

QPR

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby QPR

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

1,7

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

18%

45%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

27%

55%

Both score Ø 69%

64%

73%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,67 xG 0,38

38% Possession 62%

12 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · QPR 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	8	4	0	+25	+15.2	28
2	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+8	+3.2	23
3	Stoke	12	6	3	3	+5	-1.7	21
4	Millwall	11	6	2	3	+0	+0.6	20
5	Bristol City	11	5	4	2	+8	+3.5	19
6	Preston	12	5	4	3	+3	-1.1	19
7	Charlton	11	5	3	3	+4	-1.3	18
8	Hull	11	5	3	3	+0	-7.1	18
9	QPR	11	5	3	3	-1	+0.6	18
10	Leicester	11	4	5	2	+4	-1.6	17
11	West Brom	12	5	2	5	-2	-1.5	17
12	Ipswich	11	4	4	3	+4	+9.6	16
13	Watford	12	4	3	5	-2	+3.4	15
14	Birmingham	11	4	3	4	-3	+3.8	15
15	Wrexham	11	3	4	4	-1	-4.6	13
16	Swansea	11	3	4	4	-1	-4.2	13
17	Portsmouth	12	3	4	5	-3	-2.4	13
18	Southampton	10	2	5	3	-3	+7.2	11
19	Derby	11	2	5	4	-4	-6.4	11
20	Oxford	11	2	3	6	-3	-0.6	9
21	Sheffield United	12	3	0	9	-11	-0.1	9
22	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-5	-6.0	8
23	Blackburn	10	2	1	7	-8	+1.2	7
24	Sheffield Weds	11	1	3	7	-14	-9.6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	6	4	2	0	+13	+5.5	14
2	Ipswich	7	4	2	1	+6	+8.8	14
3	Preston	7	4	2	1	+4	-0.7	14
4	Middlesbrough	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.3	13
5	Watford	6	4	1	1	+3	+3.1	13
6	Hull	6	4	1	1	+2	-2.2	13
7	Charlton	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.1	10
8	Stoke	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.5	10
9	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+3	+3.3	9
10	Millwall	6	3	0	3	-3	-0.1	9
11	QPR	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.6	8
12	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.3	8
13	Birmingham	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.7	8
14	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.6	8
15	Portsmouth	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.1	7
16	Wrexham	6	1	3	2	-2	+0.1	6
17	Derby	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.3	6
18	Swansea	6	1	3	2	-2	-0.7	6
19	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	+6.5	5
20	Oxford	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
21	Sheffield United	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.6	3
22	Blackburn	5	0	1	4	-6	-0.9	1
23	Sheffield Weds	6	0	1	5	-14	-7.5	1
24	Norwich	5	0	0	5	-5	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	6	4	2	0	+12	+9.6	14
2	Bristol City	5	3	2	0	+7	+3.2	11
3	Millwall	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
4	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.2	11
5	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.9	10
6	QPR	6	3	1	2	-3	-1.0	10
7	West Brom	7	3	0	4	-3	-3.1	9
8	Leicester	6	2	2	2	+1	-4.9	8
9	Norwich	6	2	2	2	+0	-4.8	8
10	Charlton	6	2	2	2	+0	-3.4	8
11	Wrexham	5	2	1	2	+1	-4.7	7
12	Swansea	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.4	7
13	Birmingham	6	2	1	3	-4	-1.0	7
14	Portsmouth	5	1	3	1	+0	-1.3	6
15	Blackburn	5	2	0	3	-2	+2.1	6
16	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-3	+0.7	6
17	Sheffield United	7	2	0	5	-6	-0.8	6
18	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.1	5
19	Preston	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.4	5
20	Hull	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.9	5
21	Derby	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.1	5
22	Oxford	6	1	1	4	-2	-3.9	4
23	Ipswich	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.8	2
24	Watford	6	0	2	4	-5	+0.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.