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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luís Godinho

Estrela

T U S T T

1–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 13%

13%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

25%

63%

Both score Ø 44%

25%

63%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,84 xG 0,61

57% Possession 43%

16 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 15. · Rio Ave 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+18	+12.2	22
2	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+15	+13.4	19
3	Gil Vicente	9	6	1	2	+10	+3.9	19
4	Benfica	8	5	3	0	+9	+7.4	18
5	Moreirense	8	5	0	3	+1	-3.4	15
6	Famalicao	8	3	4	1	+4	+3.4	13
7	Santa Clara	9	3	2	4	-2	+2.8	11
8	Guimaraes	8	3	2	3	-3	-1.2	11
9	Sp Braga	8	2	4	2	+4	+2.4	10
10	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-3	-0.8	10
11	Alverca	9	3	1	5	-5	-0.9	10
12	Arouca	8	2	3	3	-9	-9.9	9
13	Rio Ave	8	1	5	2	-2	-5.0	8
14	Casa Pia	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.6	8
15	Estrela	8	1	4	3	-2	-0.6	7
16	Estoril	8	1	3	4	-3	-5.4	6
17	Tondela	8	1	2	5	-10	-5.1	5
18	AVS	9	0	1	8	-17	-8.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.1	12
2	Porto	4	3	1	0	+8	+6.9	10
3	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
4	Benfica	4	2	2	0	+4	+5.4	8
5	Guimaraes	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.5	8
6	Sp Lisbon	4	2	1	1	+8	+6.8	7
7	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	+4.0	7
8	Alverca	5	2	0	3	-5	+0.8	6
9	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.4	5
10	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.8	5
11	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-4	-6.0	5
12	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.4	4
13	Estrela	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.1	4
14	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
15	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	+0.2	3
16	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
17	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.4	2
18	AVS	4	0	0	4	-8	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.3	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+6.6	12
3	Gil Vicente	5	3	1	1	+6	+0.6	10
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	+2.0	10
5	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
6	Nacional	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
7	Sp Braga	4	1	3	0	+3	-0.0	6
8	Casa Pia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
9	Alverca	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.6	4
10	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.2	4
11	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
12	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.2	3
13	Estrela	4	0	3	1	-2	-1.6	3
14	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.5	3
15	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.8	3
16	Tondela	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.9	3
17	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.5	2
18	AVS	5	0	1	4	-9	-5.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.