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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Brighton

S S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Leeds

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,2

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 5. · Leeds 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Man City	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Leeds	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Man United	4	2	0	2	-3	6
7	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Fulham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+3	4
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Nott'm Forest	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Liverpool	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Man City	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Brighton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Everton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
5	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	-2	3
6	Man United	2	1	0	1	-3	3
7	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Newcastle	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Fulham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Nott'm Forest	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.