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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Brighton

S T U U T

2–0

Full-time

Leeds

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

1,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 32%

21%

42%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

45%

58%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

17 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 17. · Leeds 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	34	25	5	4	+47	80
2	Man United	33	19	10	4	+29	67
3	Leicester	34	19	6	9	+22	63
4	Chelsea	33	16	10	7	+20	58
5	West Ham	33	16	7	10	+10	55
6	Liverpool	33	15	9	9	+16	54
7	Tottenham	33	15	8	10	+18	53
8	Everton	32	15	7	10	+4	52
9	Leeds	33	14	5	14	+0	47
10	Arsenal	33	13	7	13	+7	46
11	Aston Villa	32	13	6	13	+9	45
12	Wolves	33	11	8	14	-13	41
13	Crystal Palace	33	10	8	15	-22	38
14	Southampton	33	10	7	16	-18	37
15	Burnley	33	9	9	15	-15	36
16	Newcastle	33	9	9	15	-18	36
17	Brighton	33	7	13	13	-6	34
18	Fulham	33	5	12	16	-18	27
19	West Brom	33	5	10	18	-34	25
20	Sheffield United	33	5	2	26	-38	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	12	2	3	+22	38
2	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
3	Man United	16	9	3	4	+13	30
4	Leicester	17	9	1	7	+8	28
5	Chelsea	16	7	6	3	+11	27
6	Tottenham	16	8	3	5	+10	27
7	Liverpool	17	8	3	6	+5	27
8	Leeds	17	6	5	6	+3	23
9	Arsenal	17	6	4	7	-1	22
10	Wolves	17	6	4	7	-4	22
11	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+3	21
12	Southampton	16	6	3	7	+1	21
13	Newcastle	16	5	5	6	-5	20
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-11	20
15	Everton	16	5	4	7	-3	19
16	Burnley	16	4	6	6	-5	18
17	Brighton	16	2	8	6	-3	14
18	West Brom	16	3	5	8	-21	14
19	Sheffield United	17	4	1	12	-14	13
20	Fulham	17	2	4	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+25	42
2	Man United	17	10	7	0	+16	37
3	Leicester	17	10	5	2	+14	35
4	Everton	16	10	3	3	+7	33
5	Chelsea	17	9	4	4	+9	31
6	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	+11	27
7	Tottenham	17	7	5	5	+8	26
8	Arsenal	16	7	3	6	+8	24
9	Aston Villa	16	7	3	6	+6	24
10	West Ham	16	7	3	6	+2	24
11	Leeds	16	8	0	8	-3	24
12	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-3	20
13	Wolves	16	5	4	7	-9	19
14	Burnley	17	5	3	9	-10	18
15	Crystal Palace	16	5	3	8	-11	18
16	Fulham	16	3	8	5	-3	17
17	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
18	Southampton	17	4	4	9	-19	16
19	West Brom	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Sheffield United	16	1	1	14	-24	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.