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Championship

Referee: Sam Allison

Cardiff

U T U T T

1–1

Full-time

Stoke

T U T S S

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

3,0

3,4

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,92 xG 0,75

71% Possession 29%

26 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 4

5 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 22. · Stoke 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Swansea	5	3	2	0	+6	+1.4	11
2	Middlesbrough	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.4	10
3	QPR	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.0	10
4	Bristol City	5	3	1	1	+2	-4.2	10
5	West Brom	5	3	1	1	+2	-1.9	10
6	Charlton	5	3	1	1	-1	-4.4	10
7	Millwall	5	3	0	2	+2	+2.3	9
8	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+5	+3.1	8
9	West Ham	5	2	2	1	+4	+0.5	8
10	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	+4.5	8
11	Birmingham	5	1	4	0	+1	+0.7	7
12	Wrexham	5	1	3	1	+2	+1.6	6
13	Norwich	5	2	0	3	+0	+0.4	6
14	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.7	6
15	Portsmouth	5	2	0	3	-1	-0.2	6
16	Sheffield United	5	1	3	1	-1	-0.5	6
17	Blackburn	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.3	5
18	Watford	5	1	2	2	-2	-1.5	5
19	Lincoln	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.4	5
20	Derby	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.6	4
21	Bolton	5	1	1	3	-5	-1.1	4
22	Cardiff	5	0	3	2	-3	+0.8	3
23	Preston	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.8	3
24	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
2	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+6	+3.7	6
3	West Ham	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.2	6
4	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.7	6
5	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	+1.6	6
6	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.9	6
7	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
8	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	-0.9	5
9	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
10	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
11	QPR	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.6	4
12	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.5	4
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+2	+2.0	3
14	Birmingham	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.0	3
15	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
16	Bolton	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
17	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	-1	-3.6	3
18	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.1	3
19	Preston	3	1	0	2	-3	+0.2	3
20	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
21	Burnley	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.0	2
22	Lincoln	3	0	2	1	-2	+2.6	2
23	Wrexham	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.1	1
24	Derby	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.6	7
2	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.3	6
4	Wrexham	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.5	5
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
6	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
7	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
8	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-3	-3.8	4
9	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.3	3
10	Lincoln	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.3	3
12	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
13	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
14	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.6	3
15	West Ham	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.7	2
16	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
17	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.6	2
18	Blackburn	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.3	2
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
20	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.3	1
21	Bolton	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.6	1
22	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.6	0
23	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.4	0
24	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Apr -25 Cardiff – Stoke 0–1 8. Feb -25 Stoke – Cardiff 3–3 14. Dec -24 Stoke – Cardiff 2–2 24. Feb -24 Cardiff – Stoke 2–1 4. Nov -23 Stoke – Cardiff 0–0

Match report

Cardiff Stoke

22′

⚽ Ben Johnson 0–1

Róbert Boženík

27′

🟨 Ben Wilmot

Half-time 0–1

Perry Tian Hee Ng 🟨

47′

59′

🔁 Eric Junior Bocat

↦ Luca Bombino

59′

🔁 Bae Jun-ho

↦ George Hirst

1–1 Joel Colwill ⚽

Christopher Willock

63′

69′

🔁 Lamine Cissé

↦ Justin Devenny

69′

🔁 Jack Mcglynn

↦ Róbert Boženík

81′

🟨 Luke Graham

C. Ashford 🔁

↦ Christopher Willock

82′

Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-2-3-1

N. Trott G

P. Ng D

K. Bielik D

G. Osho D

J. Bagan D

A. Robertson M

J. Colwill M

O. Tanner M

J. Moylan M

C. Willock M

Y. Salech F

Bench (9)

14 D. Turnbull

30 H. Tyrer

40 N. Anyadike

45 Cian Ashford

44 R. Kpakio

43 P. Moreno

47 C. Robinson

23 C. Scanlon

33 R. Tankiewicz

Coach: B. Barry-Murphy

Stoke

3-5-2

V. Johansson G

B. Wilmot D

M. Talovierov D

L. Graham D

B. Johnson M

J. Devenny M

El Hadji Djibril Soumaré M

E. Galbraith M

L. Bombino M

R. Boženík F

G. Hirst F

Bench (9)

10 Bae Jun-Ho

17 E. Bocat

11 L. Cissé

24 J. Griffiths

42 M. Manhoef

7 J. McGlynn

4 B. Pearson

19 T. Rigo

43 F. Anderson

Coach: M. Robins

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

2,03

🔒

Pinnacle 2,11 Dafabet 2,08 Betano 2,07 Superbet 2,07 SBO 2,06 10Bet 2,06 Betfair 2,05 BetVictor 2,05 1xBet 2,02 Bet365 2,00 Unibet 2,00 888Sport 2,00 Marathonbet 2,00 William Hill 2,00

U ✓

3,68

🔒

Dafabet 3,75 1xBet 3,72 Marathonbet 3,72 Pinnacle 3,68 Unibet 3,65 Superbet 3,65 10Bet 3,60 Bet365 3,60 Betano 3,60 Betfair 3,60 BetVictor 3,60 888Sport 3,50 William Hill 3,50 SBO 3,36

3,35

🔒

Bet365 3,50 Pinnacle 3,46 Dafabet 3,45 Betano 3,40 Betfair 3,40 Superbet 3,40 BetVictor 3,40 Unibet 3,35 1xBet 3,30 888Sport 3,30 Marathonbet 3,30 William Hill 3,30 10Bet 3,25 SBO 3,05

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,18

🔒

Betano 1,23 10Bet 1,20 Bet365 1,20 Pinnacle 1,20 Superbet 1,19 Betfair 1,18 888Sport 1,18 BetVictor 1,18 Unibet 1,17 1xBet 1,14 Marathonbet 1,14

U1,5

4,50

🔒

Pinnacle 4,91 Superbet 4,75 Unibet 4,60 Bet365 4,50 Betfair 4,50 888Sport 4,50 BetVictor 4,40 1xBet 4,35 Marathonbet 4,35 10Bet 4,33 Betano 4,30

O2,5

1,59

🔒

Betano 1,70 Bet365 1,67 10Bet 1,65 Pinnacle 1,65 SBO 1,64 Superbet 1,63 888Sport 1,62 1xBet 1,61 Marathonbet 1,61 Unibet 1,60 Betfair 1,60 BetVictor 1,59

U2,5 ✓

2,28

🔒

Pinnacle 2,34 Superbet 2,30 1xBet 2,27 Marathonbet 2,27 SBO 2,25 Unibet 2,25 Betfair 2,25 Betano 2,22 10Bet 2,20 Bet365 2,20 888Sport 2,20 BetVictor 2,17

O3,5

2,52

🔒