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Championship

Referee: Ben Toner

Watford

U T S U U

1–0

Full-time

Stoke

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 41%

33%

48%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

57%

48%

Both score Ø 57%

76%

38%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,22 xG 0,52

40% Possession 60%

10 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 14. · Stoke 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	22	14	6	2	+30	+20.1	48
2	Middlesbrough	19	11	5	3	+8	+4.7	38
3	Preston	22	9	9	4	+7	-4.0	36
4	Millwall	21	10	5	6	-4	+1.2	35
5	Ipswich	21	9	7	5	+13	+16.3	34
6	Stoke	21	10	3	8	+8	-3.9	33
7	Leicester	21	8	7	6	+3	-4.6	31
8	Hull	19	9	4	6	+2	-10.2	31
9	QPR	21	9	4	8	-5	+2.4	31
10	Southampton	21	8	6	7	+5	+9.8	30
11	Bristol City	21	8	6	7	+4	+1.9	30
12	Derby	21	8	6	7	+1	-4.7	30
13	Birmingham	21	8	5	8	+4	+10.9	29
14	Watford	21	7	8	6	+2	+5.1	29
15	Wrexham	22	6	10	6	+0	-7.1	28
16	West Brom	21	8	4	9	-3	+1.9	28
17	Swansea	22	7	5	10	-6	-7.1	26
18	Blackburn	21	7	4	10	-4	+7.0	25
19	Charlton	20	6	6	8	-6	-8.9	24
20	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-6	+6.4	23
21	Portsmouth	20	5	5	10	-10	-5.8	20
22	Oxford	21	4	7	10	-8	-5.8	19
23	Norwich	22	4	6	12	-10	-9.9	18
24	Sheffield Weds	20	1	6	13	-25	-16.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	10	8	2	0	+19	+9.8	26
2	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+6	+1.0	23
3	Ipswich	11	6	4	1	+10	+13.4	22
4	Watford	11	6	4	1	+7	+6.1	22
5	Birmingham	10	6	3	1	+13	+12.0	21
6	Preston	12	5	5	2	+4	-1.1	20
7	Hull	10	6	2	2	+3	-2.8	20
8	Stoke	10	6	1	3	+9	+1.7	19
9	West Brom	10	5	4	1	+5	+5.6	19
10	Millwall	10	6	1	3	+0	+4.2	19
11	Southampton	10	5	3	2	+6	+7.5	18
12	Swansea	12	5	3	4	-1	-1.6	18
13	Wrexham	11	4	5	2	+2	+2.8	17
14	QPR	10	5	2	3	+2	+6.7	17
15	Leicester	10	4	4	2	+3	+2.6	16
16	Bristol City	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.0	15
17	Charlton	9	4	2	3	+0	-2.2	14
18	Portsmouth	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.7	14
19	Derby	11	3	4	4	-3	-0.7	13
20	Sheffield United	10	3	2	5	+0	+7.4	11
21	Oxford	10	2	4	4	-4	+1.1	10
22	Blackburn	11	2	3	6	-5	+5.4	9
23	Norwich	10	2	1	7	-5	-1.2	7
24	Sheffield Weds	11	0	2	9	-22	-8.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	6	4	2	+11	+10.3	22
2	Derby	10	5	2	3	+4	-4.0	17
3	Preston	10	4	4	2	+3	-2.9	16
4	Blackburn	10	5	1	4	+1	+1.7	16
5	Millwall	11	4	4	3	-4	-2.9	16
6	Middlesbrough	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.7	15
7	Bristol City	10	4	3	3	+1	+0.9	15
8	Leicester	11	4	3	4	+0	-7.3	15
9	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	-5.7	14
10	QPR	11	4	2	5	-7	-4.2	14
11	Ipswich	10	3	3	4	+3	+2.9	12
12	Southampton	11	3	3	5	-1	+2.3	12
13	Sheffield United	11	4	0	7	-6	-1.0	12
14	Hull	9	3	2	4	-1	-7.3	11
15	Wrexham	11	2	5	4	-2	-9.9	11
16	Norwich	12	2	5	5	-5	-8.7	11
17	Charlton	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.7	10
18	Oxford	11	2	3	6	-4	-6.8	9
19	West Brom	11	3	0	8	-8	-3.7	9
20	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-5	-5.5	8
21	Birmingham	11	2	2	7	-9	-1.1	8
22	Sheffield Weds	9	1	4	4	-3	-7.2	7
23	Watford	10	1	4	5	-5	-1.0	7
24	Portsmouth	9	1	3	5	-9	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.