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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Siebert

Hoffenheim

S U T T U

2–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 59%

52%

66%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

69%

55%

Both score Ø 59%

66%

52%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

2,0

2,1

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,25 xG 0,70

46% Possession 54%

13 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

6 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 6. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	29	24	4	1	+78	+55.4	76
2	Dortmund	29	19	7	3	+31	+21.7	64
3	Stuttgart	29	17	5	7	+22	+11.1	56
4	RB Leipzig	29	17	5	7	+20	+14.0	56
5	Leverkusen	29	15	7	7	+20	+16.5	52
6	Hoffenheim	29	15	6	8	+14	+1.5	51
7	Ein Frankfurt	29	11	9	9	+0	-3.9	42
8	Freiburg	29	11	7	11	-5	+3.8	40
9	Mainz	29	8	9	12	-9	-6.1	33
10	Augsburg	29	9	6	14	-17	-14.8	33
11	Union Berlin	29	8	8	13	-17	-7.1	32
12	FC Koln	30	7	10	13	-7	-3.5	31
13	Hamburg	29	7	10	12	-13	-18.6	31
14	M'gladbach	29	7	9	13	-14	-7.0	30
15	Werder Bremen	29	7	7	15	-20	-9.7	28
16	St Pauli	30	6	8	16	-25	-21.1	26
17	Wolfsburg	29	5	6	18	-26	-16.2	21
18	Heidenheim	29	4	7	18	-32	-16.1	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+43	+30.5	37
2	Dortmund	15	11	2	2	+19	+18.0	35
3	Stuttgart	15	11	2	2	+12	+9.1	35
4	RB Leipzig	15	10	2	3	+17	+9.6	32
5	Leverkusen	14	8	3	3	+17	+17.4	27
6	Hoffenheim	14	8	1	5	+12	+6.2	25
7	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+7	+10.5	25
8	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	3	4	+5	+3.7	24
9	Augsburg	15	6	4	5	-5	-7.4	22
10	Hamburg	15	5	6	4	+3	-2.6	21
11	FC Koln	15	5	4	6	+3	+3.3	19
12	Union Berlin	14	4	6	4	-3	+3.4	18
13	Mainz	15	4	5	6	-1	+4.9	17
14	M'gladbach	14	4	5	5	-5	-1.6	17
15	St Pauli	15	4	5	6	-11	-6.2	17
16	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-10	+3.4	16
17	Heidenheim	15	3	5	7	-14	-8.4	14
18	Wolfsburg	15	2	3	10	-10	-1.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	3	0	+35	+24.9	39
2	Dortmund	14	8	5	1	+12	+3.7	29
3	Hoffenheim	15	7	5	3	+2	-4.6	26
4	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+3	-0.9	25
5	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+3	+4.4	24
6	Stuttgart	14	6	3	5	+10	+2.0	21
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	6	5	-5	-7.6	18
8	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-8	-11.1	16
9	Freiburg	15	4	3	8	-12	-6.6	15
10	Union Berlin	15	4	2	9	-14	-10.6	14
11	M'gladbach	15	3	4	8	-9	-5.3	13
12	Werder Bremen	15	3	3	9	-10	-13.0	12
13	FC Koln	15	2	6	7	-10	-6.8	12
14	Wolfsburg	14	3	3	8	-16	-15.2	12
15	Augsburg	14	3	2	9	-12	-7.5	11
16	Hamburg	14	2	4	8	-16	-15.9	10
17	St Pauli	15	2	3	10	-14	-15.0	9
18	Heidenheim	14	1	2	11	-18	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.