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DFB-Pokal
Referee: T Gerach
Hoffenheim
S U S T U
2–1
Full-time
Nurnberg
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Nurnberg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
4,5
Scored
1,5
2,8
Conceded
1,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
1,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
4,0
2,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%
23 Shots 15
10 Shots on target 5
8 Blocked shots 6
4 Goalkeeper saves 8
10 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 32. · Nurnberg 34.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Karlsruhe 2 2 0 0 +7 6
2 Augsburg 2 2 0 0 +6 6
3 Stuttgart 2 2 0 0 +6 6
4 RB Leipzig 2 2 0 0 +5 6
5 Hertha 2 2 0 0 +5 6
6 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 +5 6
7 FC Koln 2 2 0 0 +4 6
8 Ein Frankfurt 2 2 0 0 +4 6
9 Leverkusen 2 2 0 0 +4 6
10 Werder Bremen 2 2 0 0 +3 6
11 Wolfsburg 2 2 0 0 +2 6
12 Regensburg 2 2 0 0 +2 6
13 Hamburg 2 1 0 1 +5 3
14 Elversberg 2 1 0 1 +4 3
15 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 0 +4 3
16 Heidenheim 2 1 0 1 +3 3
17 Paderborn 2 1 0 1 +3 3
18 Dortmund 2 1 0 1 +2 3
19 Mainz 1 1 0 0 +2 3
20 Darmstadt 1 1 0 0 +2 3
21 Bielefeld 1 1 0 0 +2 3
22 Dresden 1 1 0 0 +2 3
23 M'gladbach 2 1 0 1 +1 3
24 Greuther Furth 2 1 0 1 +1 3
25 Union Berlin 1 1 0 0 +1 3
26 Kaiserslautern 2 1 0 1 +0 3
27 St Pauli 2 1 0 1 -1 3
28 Schalke 04 2 1 0 1 -1 3
29 Kickers Offenbach 2 1 0 1 -1 3
30 Holstein Kiel 2 1 0 1 -2 3
31 Wurzburger Kickers 1 0 1 0 +0 1
32 Hoffenheim 1 0 1 0 +0 1
33 FC Saarbrücken 1 0 1 0 +0 1
34 Nurnberg 1 0 1 0 +0 1
35 Sandhausen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
36 Hallescher FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Alemannia Aachen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 FC Ingolstadt 04 1 0 0 1 -1 0
39 Magdeburg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
40 Bochum 1 0 0 1 -1 0
41 Carl Zeiss Jena 1 0 0 1 -1 0
42 Greifswalder FC 1 0 0 1 -1 0
43 TuS Koblenz 1 0 0 1 -1 0
44 Erzgebirge Aue 1 0 0 1 -2 0
45 Wehen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
46 Cottbus 1 0 0 1 -2 0
47 Teutonia Ottensen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
48 Hannover 1 0 0 1 -2 0
49 Fortuna Dusseldorf 1 0 0 1 -2 0
50 Schott Mainz 1 0 0 1 -2 0
51 VfR Aalen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
52 Braunschweig 1 0 0 1 -3 0
53 Rot-Weiß Essen 1 0 0 1 -3 0
54 Viktoria Berlin 1 0 0 1 -3 0
55 Phönix Lübeck 1 0 0 1 -3 0
56 Hansa Rostock 1 0 0 1 -4 0
57 Osnabruck 1 0 0 1 -4 0
58 Ulm 1 0 0 1 -4 0
59 Bremer Sv 1 0 0 1 -4 0
60 FC 08 Villingen 1 0 0 1 -4 0
61 Preußen Münster 1 0 0 1 -5 0
62 Sportfreunde Lotte 1 0 0 1 -5 0
63 SV Meppen 1 0 0 1 -6 0
64 Borussia Hildesheim 1 0 0 1 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim Nurnberg
1′
🟨 Stefanos Tzimas
1–0 H. Tabaković
27′
Umut Tohumcu 🟨
30′
34′
🟨 Julian Justvan
Anton Stach 🟨
37′
Half-time 1–1
47′
M. Emreli 1–1
J. Justvan
A. Kramarić 🔁
↦ M. Bülter
62′
70′
🔁 L. Schleimer
↦ S. Tzimas
2–1 Arthur Chaves
U. Tohumcu
71′
T. Bischof 🔁
↦ F. Grillitsch
72′
M. Berisha 🔁
↦ A. Hložek
73′
82′
🔁 J. Hofmann
↦ O. Villadsen
82′
🔁 R. Lubach
↦ M. Emreli
T. Drexler 🔁
↦ A. Stach
84′
85′
🔁 T. Duman
↦ J. Castrop
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

3-4-3
1 O. Baumann G
35 Arthur Chaves D
16 A. Stach D
25 K. Akpoguma D
3 P. Kadeřábek M
11 F. Grillitsch M
17 U. Tohumcu M
19 D. Jurásek M
23 A. Hložek F
26 H. Tabaković F
21 M. Bülter F
Bench (9)
27 A. Kramarić
7 T. Bischof
10 M. Berisha
4 T. Drexler
15 V. Gendrey
34 S. Nsoki
29 J. Bruun Larsen
18 D. Samassékou
37 L. Philipp

Coach: P. Matarazzo

Nurnberg

3-4-3
26 C. Mathenia G
4 F. Jeltsch D
31 R. Knoche D
44 O. Karafiát D
2 O. Villadsen M
20 C. Jander M
17 J. Castrop M
21 B. Yılmaz M
30 M. Emreli F
10 J. Justvan F
9 S. Tzimas F
Bench (9)
36 L. Schleimer
43 J. Hofmann
18 R. Lubach
8 T. Duman
37 M. Kukučka
33 N. Seidel
14 B. Goller
6 F. Flick
22 E. Valentini

Coach: M. Klose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Gerach · 55 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.