Copa del Rey
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Team trends
Lleida Esportiu
Barakaldo
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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The table before the match ▾
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Villarreal
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 |
Vallecano
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 |
Zaragoza
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 |
Chiclana
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 |
Vic
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 6 |
Burgos
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 7 |
Valladolid
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 8 |
Sevilla
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 9 |
Cadiz
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 |
UD San Pedro
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 11 |
Manises
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 12 |
Santander
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 |
Ourense CF
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Gimnastic
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Europa Fc
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 |
Leganes
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 |
Orihuela
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 18 |
Marbella
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 19 |
Cartagena
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 20 |
Alaves
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 21 |
Parla Escuela
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 22 |
Astur
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 23 |
Villamuriel
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 24 |
Olot
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 25 |
Cordoba
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 26 |
San Tirso
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 27 |
Selaya
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 28 |
Baztán
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 29 |
Ontiñena
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 30 |
Gévora
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 31 |
Playas Sotavento
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| 32 |
Lanzarote
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 |
Guijuelo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 34 |
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 35 |
Albacete
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 36 |
Ciudad de Lucena
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 37 |
Langreo
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 38 |
Bergantiños
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 39 |
Beasain
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 40 |
Compostela
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 41 |
Sonseca
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 42 |
Aurrerá Vitoria
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 43 |
Ceuta 6 de Junio
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 44 |
Dolorense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 45 |
Promesas EDF
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 46 |
Móstoles
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 47 |
Las Rozas
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 48 |
Real Jaén
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 49 |
L'Hospitalet
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 50 |
Melilla CD
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 51 |
Sporting Mahón
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 52 |
Poblense
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Match report
Line-ups
Lleida Esportiu
Q. Liameed
Bench (9)
Coach: Marc García
Barakaldo
Beñat de Jesús
Bench (11)
Coach: Imanol de la Sota
Odds comparison
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.